Investors should be careful about lessons taken from the incredible and, in all likelihood, unique market downturn of 2008-09. Between November 2007 and March 2009, the stock market fell by more than 50 per cent. Lazy minds seek out the easiest rather than most valuable lesson, a case of preparing for the last war rather than a sober assessment of future risks.
The results of lazy thinking are everywhere: former property trust investors have sworn off all listed property (instead of that which is overpriced and overleveraged). Instead, they are heavily invested in mining and bank stocks.
Growth investors are seeking more dividends and value investors question whether "buy and hold is dead". Overseas, Americans are still fleeing the stock market in droves.
Now money is ploughing into government bonds earning just a few per cent or less. These aren't just easy lessons, they're the wrong lessons altogether.
So here's what I learnt in the crisis.
First, I wasn't sufficiently diversified. Now I'm working harder on having adequate, and thoughtfully uncorrelated, diversification.
Second, I have a greater appreciation of the value of cash.
Before the crisis, I was a Peter Lynch "get caught with my pants up" investor. Markets go up over time so, I thought, better to be 100 per cent invested in my 10 to 15 favourite opportunities at the time.
In my grubstake days, I even avoided frivolities such as breakfast and a full tank of petrol, just so I could have a few dollars more to put into my favourite new stock idea.
I've since ditched Lynch's strategy, which works great in bull markets, for Seth Klarman, who says: "in the absence of bargains, I hold cash".
Including unlisted investments in my overall portfolio, today I'm about 25 per cent in cash. This is what I've learnt from the experience:
More discipline when it comes time to sell. Although I have a commitment to keeping a portfolio of underpriced securities, in reality I was giving leeway to fairly priced and even slightly overpriced securities, if there were no alternative bargains to buy. Now, I sell fairly valued securities from my portfolio and happily sit on cash instead. I'm more concerned with real losses than the fear of missing out.
Willingness to hold cash. It improves discipline when it comes to buying. Just because a stock might be the best opportunity I can find right now doesn't mean it's a great opportunity. Reserving the right to hold cash allows me to consider tomorrow's opportunity set as a valid alternative.
Take advantage of genuine bargains. I don't have to "sell cheap to buy cheaper" as I did in 2008-09. Panics and bargains tend to emerge at least every few years, although we're unlikely to see a period like that for a very long time. But I picked up a raft of cheap stocks in August 2011 and I'll be ready when I get a similar opportunity. In the meantime, I prefer cash over cheapish securities. My money might not be "working" all the time but market downturns now create more wealth today than they did in the past. Conservative investors have to be more active in the current environment than they have been before.
Sell overpriced stocks. Overpriced markets create more wealth through the ability to cash out. This is the reverse of the previous point. When stock prices are expensive, I get the chance to sell out at attractive prices and wait once again for the bargains.
No longer do I have 100 per cent of my wealth invested in growth assets all the time. Instead, the 75 per cent to 80 per cent I tend to have invested is, on average, in a cheaper and better-constructed portfolio (the sell discipline in particular helps in this regard).
The arguments in favour of holding cash mount up when you add
the benefits to overall returns of being able to take bigger swings when bargains emerge and the tendency to be less invested
in downturns.
It may well be a different matter in the face of a mindless, 20-year bull market but right now, that possibility looks a long way off.
I was once someone who wanted their money "working" all the time. Experience has taught me smart money is the type that works hard when the risk-reward equation is compelling, and when it isn't, the best place for a portion of your money is where I spent much of my short-lived professional AFL football career, on the bench.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
What should everyday investors learn from the 2008–09 market crisis?
The 2008–09 crash was extreme and likely unique, so investors should avoid one-size-fits-all lessons. Useful takeaways are to avoid overreacting (for example, dumping entire sectors), focus on thoughtful diversification, value having cash on hand, and develop a disciplined sell strategy rather than simply trying to be fully invested at all times.
How important is diversification for individual investors after a market downturn?
Diversification is crucial. The author admits they weren’t sufficiently diversified during the crisis and now works to hold adequate, thoughtfully uncorrelated assets. Diversification helps reduce portfolio volatility and the risk of large losses when any single sector or asset class falls.
Why is keeping cash in a portfolio valuable for everyday investors?
Holding cash gives you flexibility: it improves buying discipline, lets you sit out of overvalued opportunities, and allows you to act quickly when genuine bargains appear. The author now holds about 25% cash (including unlisted investments) and follows the principle that in the absence of bargains, it can be best to hold cash.
What is sell discipline and how can it help my investment results?
Sell discipline means being willing to sell fairly valued or overpriced securities instead of holding them out of fear of missing out. That creates cash to buy better opportunities, reduces the risk of real losses, and leads to a cheaper, better-constructed portfolio over time.
Should I keep 100% of my wealth invested in growth assets all the time?
Not necessarily. The author no longer keeps 100% in growth assets and typically has about 75–80% invested on average. Reducing full exposure helps protect against downturns and gives cash to exploit bargains when they arise.
How should I treat 'cheap' or 'cheapish' stocks during normal markets?
Be cautious about buying ‘cheapish’ stocks just to be invested. The author prefers holding cash rather than buying only slightly discounted names and waits for genuine bargains that emerge during panics. You don’t have to sell cheap to buy cheaper—patience can pay off.
When is it a good idea to sell overpriced stocks?
Sell overpriced stocks when market prices are attractive because those markets give you the chance to cash out at good levels and then wait for true bargains. Realising gains in expensive markets can improve long-term wealth by funding future opportunities at lower prices.
How does holding cash improve overall returns and risk management?
Holding cash allows you to take bigger, concentrated bets when high-quality bargains appear and to be less exposed during downturns. It enforces buying and selling discipline, helps avoid real losses, and aligns your capital deployment with a favourable risk‑reward equation rather than always keeping money ‘working’.