TWEET TALK: Just a little longer
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets today to discuss the future of the official cash rate. Last month, the central bank held rates steady at 3.5 per cent for the second consecutive month after cutting them by 25 basis points in June and 50 basis points in May. The consensus among economists is that today will be a hold with a rate cut in the last three months of the calendar year.
Market Economics managing director and Business Spectator contributor Stephen Koukoulas (@TheKouk) said the RBA should cut, but won't.
"RBA should cut, but won't tomorrow. I will cover the RBA board meeting in Business Spectator tomorrow morning, " he tweeted.
"RBA playing same game as 1st half 2012. In denial about the risk then forced to go 75bps in 2 mths. Expect similar action soon."
Ben Le Brun, market analyst with optionsXpress (@benlebrun), expected the board to wait a little longer.
"On hold tomorrow. Still play the wait & see game. Things aren't great but conditions don't warrant a cut... yet," he wrote.
AMP Capital head of investment strategy and chief economist Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) said the economy was ripe for a cut, but the RBA would wait.
"RBA should be cutting & will be by yr end (given soft non-mining sector & fall in comm prices) but likely on hold tomorrow," he said.
"Yes I am concerned RBA will take too long to cut. GDP data has exaggerated the strength in Aust econ. Today's data show it is soft."
But Eureka Report investment strategist Adam Carr (@AdamCarrEcon) says the RBA should hold, though may be tempted to hit the panic button in light of China woes, potential US stimulus and iron ore prices.
"I think they'll just sound a note of caution on China then given those signals," he tweeted.
"The Fed easing is inflationary for us, especially with US growth above trend. Adds to case to hold. China is a tougher one – official stats suggest still solid, albeit slower growth. Iron ore prices tell a different story.
"The risk is they panic again and cut, but I think they hold. They might panic because of the slump in iron ore prices. It doesn't take much to spook them...
"But I think they hold because they got burnt so badly last time, calling domestic economic weakness... when of course economic data showed the economy was strong."