THE ASHES: Mixed Gabba jabber

The Gabba has always been a good ground for an Australian ambush, and not only because its address on Brisbane's Vulture Street summons up visions of Dead Man's Gulch. Visiting cricket teams usually roll in about half ready, out of season, out of synch, and are soon out of time to come back. Hit by Australia's full force, they have managed to draw only four of the last 20 Tests here; the rest they have lost. In the last decade, Australian batsmen have accumulated 18 hundreds and averaged almost 50 at the Gabba; its bowlers have conceded only three hundreds while gathering their wickets at an average of 21.

It says much about the respective recent fortunes of Australia and England that this history hasn't simply killed speculation about tomorrow's First Test stone dead. Not in years, in fact, have predictions before an Ashes series ranged so widely – while remaining, let it be said, mainly partisan.

The usual Australian gauntlets have been thrown down: Glenn McGrath has uttered his reflex prediction of 5-0, making Merv Hughes look like a big girl's blouse for countenancing a single draw. But other Australians are more circumspect, with 2-1 a popular margin, and Ian Chappell deeming his countrymen only 'slight favourites'.

Just for a change, too, English critics are joining in the fun, with Ian Botham gathering supporters for the idea of a comprehensive visitors' victory. Others claim to have discerned cloying insecurities behind Australian triumphalism, and had a flutter before English odds came in sharply after their ten-wicket triumph over Australia A at Bellerive Oval, with the result that almost two-thirds of the money wagered on the Brisbane Test is on England, and less than a third of the money on the series has been wagered on Australia.

So why is the expectation suddenly of two-way traffic on Vulture Street, when for so long it has been a dead end? For one, Ricky Ponting's Australians have acquired a losing habit. Their three consecutive Test defeats have not been stuffings, but they have had their stuffingesque moments: being bowled out for 88 in 33 overs at Headingley, allowing the last two Indian wickets to add 92 at Mohali, and squandering seven for 97 at Bangalore.

Their decline has been precipitous. When Australia last met England, they were still rated the world's number one Test nation; not much more than a year later, they have declined to fifth. Last year, it was common to talk about the Australians' having lost their 'aura'. This year they seem to have lost something less fanciful, more fundamental, equivalent to their credit rating or their eligibility for life insurance.

For another thing, England look this summer to have actually come to play rather than merely to participate. Before the series of 1998-99, Alec Stewart startled onlookers by saying that England's objective was to be 'competitive': the Ashes barely smouldered and were extinguished before Christmas. On this tour, it has been possible to use about an England preparation adjectives like 'meticulous' and 'effective', rather than preparing for the standard allusions to Captain Mainwaring's Home Guard and Fred Karno's army.

Standing in their way is what might be called Fortress Australia: that sense of unassailability, real and imagined, about Australian teams in their own backyard. On pitches with more bounce and in conditions with less swing, English batsmen used to propping forward with low hands and bowlers accustomed to healthy sideways movement have habitually struggled – far more so than Australians going to England.

The strut of Australians under their own skies shows up statistically. In the cases of Ponting (an average of 60 at home versus 48.7 away) and especially Michael Hussey (62.65 versus 39.75) and Michael Clarke (58.56 versus 42.52), one is almost considering different players. Mitchell Johnson is a similar homebody, paying 25.59 per wicket here compared to 31.1 overseas, and his humours are of particular importance. Although no cricketer looks quite so forlorn in failure, Johnson on his day could take on the world. If he brings to the Gabba the all-round excellence he exhibited at the MCG last week, Australia will be that much more formidable.

Among the visitors, by contrast, only Kevin Pietersen and Paul Collingwood can claim to have developed happy memories of Australia, and these lasted all of three days. It was England's capitulation four years ago on the last day at Adelaide after this pair had added 310 on the first and second that confirmed the suspicion nothing would go right for Andrew Flintoff's outmatched combination.

Australia also have a talent for winning first-up, taking four of the last five opening Ashes Tests, and being just a ball away from a clean sweep. England's habits are opposite. They went four years between winning the first Test of a series in 2005 (against Bangladesh) and doing it again (also against Bangladesh). A slow start in Brisbane has cruelled many a hope: not for fifty-six years has the victor at the Gabba not gone on to claim the Ashes.

All the same, strange things have been happening lately: Australia hadn't lost at Lord's since 1934 when they succumbed last year. Yesterday's weather was delightful, but showers are predicted the next few days, and the resumption of more familiar conditions, ideal for the propagation of orchids, and thus also for the swing of Jimmy Anderson. Twenty Australian wickets may be easier to take here than later this summer, Johnson's footmarks also providing fourth and fifth day opportunities for Graeme Swann.

It has also been an odd few days in Brisbane waiting for this series to move out of the subjunctive mood, with players 'targeting' one another left and right, and Shane Warne's Twitter account seemingly set to go in number three for Australia; Warne's dutifully-reported call for the captains to show some 'cojones' suggest he might have played one hand of Texas Hold 'Em too many.

Australia's preparations have been clouded by the dicky back of Michael Clarke, probably not as bad as thought, and the allegedly dicey Gabba pitch, probably the same, despite its preparation being impaired by rain. England, meanwhile, has gone about its business under relatively little pressure, apparently spending as long on their sprinkler dance as their slips catching. Australia's advantages remain considerable, but this will be no ambuscade.

Gideon Haigh will be covering The Ashes for Business Spectator throughout the series. Also stay tuned for session-by-session catch-up WICKET TO WICKET between Haigh and Business Spectator's Supratim Adhikari.