Test time for 12 Chinese predictions

The growth model that forecast 3-4 per cent GDP for China spurred a number of other predictions. Two years’ passage gives enough time to test their validity.

Since the beginning of the global crisis in 2007-08 I have argued that the crisis was a consequence primarily of global trade imbalances generated by structural features that led to significant saving imbalances in China, the US, and within Europe. I describe this model in more detail in my recent book, The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy.

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