RBA keeps its focus on lower dollar
RBA governor Glenn Stevens said at the House of Representatives' economics committee on Wednesday that "at this point ... there are few serious claims that the cost of borrowing per se is holding back growth".
In his last public appearance before the end of the year, Mr Stevens talked again about the need for a lower exchange rate, saying an Australian dollar trading above US90¢ would not be sustainable for the economy over time.
He added that monetary policy had its limitations and while it would boost growth in the short term, other policies that boosted productivity and business investment would be more central to economic expansion in the long term.
Financial markets broadly shrugged off Mr Stevens' comments. The Australian dollar remained weak, rising slightly just before the start of his remarks in Canberra from about US89.15¢ to US89.26¢. It was buying US89.06¢ late on Wednesday.
Investors remained cautious about a possible start, on Thursday morning, to a pull-back of the US Federal Reserve's stimulus program, which has strengthened the Australian dollar in recent years.
Mr Stevens reiterated his preference for a lower dollar, noting that the exchange rate remained "uncomfortably high".
He added that intervening in foreign exchange markets remained an option for the RBA, although the central bank had not done anything "unusual" in recent times.
"I think the governor accepts the need for further stimulus in the Australian economy but he is focused on providing that stimulus through a weaker Australian dollar rather than lower rates, and I think that came out [on Wednesday]," Westpac's chief currency strategist Robert Rennie said.
Mr Stevens said Australians should not take continued economic expansion for granted. "In the end, though, firms and individuals have to have the confidence to take advantage of that situation. They have to be willing to take a risk - on a new project, a new product, a new market, a new worker. Monetary policy can't force spending to occur," Mr Stevens said.
"The path of pro-growth, pro-productivity, confidence-building reforms would mean that the basis for investment and growth in real incomes would improve."
The economy was expected to grow at a below-trend pace "for a bit longer yet", with growth possibly strengthening in the medium term.
The midyear economic and fiscal outlook, released on Tuesday, revealed that the federal government expected the budget to remain in deficit over the next decade. The budget blowout was in part due to an $8.8 billion capital injection into the RBA, which Mr Stevens said was welcomed by the central bank.
Economists said Mr Stevens' testimony suggested the Reserve Bank appeared more likely to keep the cash rate on hold at 2.5 per cent in 2014.
"The outlook for 2015 looks better, though, and we expect the bank to start returning the cash rate to a more normal level at the start of that year," Barclays' chief economist Kieran Davies said.
Mr Stevens welcomed a normalisation of the US' monetary policies, although he said the stimulus withdrawal, when it starts, would have "some disruptive effects" on other countries.
"There's not much point complaining about it. It's just the way the world works," Mr Stevens said about the start of tapering, adding that other countries had also turned to quantitative easing measures after the financial crisis.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is focusing on a lower dollar because a high exchange rate is seen as unsustainable for the economy over time. A weaker Australian dollar is expected to provide the necessary stimulus to the economy, supporting growth and making Australian exports more competitive.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens mentioned that while the door remains open for further interest rate cuts, the significant monetary policy easing over the past two years is already stimulating growth. He emphasized that the cost of borrowing is not currently a major barrier to economic growth.
The RBA views the current exchange rate of the Australian dollar as 'uncomfortably high.' Governor Glenn Stevens reiterated the preference for a lower dollar to support economic growth and indicated that intervening in foreign exchange markets remains an option.
According to the RBA, monetary policy has its limitations as it can boost growth in the short term but cannot force spending to occur. Long-term economic expansion requires policies that enhance productivity and business investment.
The article suggests that Australia's economy is expected to grow at a below-trend pace for a bit longer, with potential strengthening in the medium term. The RBA emphasizes the importance of pro-growth and pro-productivity reforms to improve the basis for investment and growth in real incomes.
Financial markets broadly shrugged off Glenn Stevens' comments. The Australian dollar remained weak, with only a slight rise during his remarks, indicating that investors were cautious about the potential impact of the US Federal Reserve's stimulus program pull-back.
The RBA welcomes the normalization of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policies, although it acknowledges that the withdrawal of stimulus could have some disruptive effects on other countries. Governor Stevens noted that such changes are part of how the global economy functions.
Economists predict that the RBA is likely to keep the cash rate on hold at 2.5% in 2014, with expectations of returning the cash rate to a more normal level starting in 2015. This suggests a cautious approach to adjusting interest rates in response to economic conditions.

