Rates on hold amid signs of recovery
Even so, economists said the Reserve appeared to indicate it was a "reluctant rate cutter", and would be weighing the recent strength in the Australian dollar against the recovering property sector.
Yet the challenges brought about by a peak in mining investment, if met with an unexpected rise in the Australian dollar and weaker-than-expected third-quarter inflation data released later this month, could push the bank towards one more cut later this year or earlier next year, they said.
In a widely expected decision, the Reserve on Tuesday left interest rates at 2.5 per cent for the second consecutive month, but gave little indication of its future policy intentions. The move came as the Australian sharemarket fell slightly in choppy trading, after the US government partially closed down because Congress failed to agree upon a new budget.
"The board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate," Reserve governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement on Tuesday, echoing comments made after last month's meeting that were seen to shift the bank towards a more neutral stance. "The board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target."
The Australian dollar rose more than half a cent, from US93.40¢ to just under US94¢, following the statement. The currency was buying US94.21¢ late on Tuesday.
The Reserve's decision came as economic data released on Tuesday pointed to signs of a recovery in the manufacturing and retail sectors. Retail sales grew by a seasonally adjusted 0.4 per cent in August, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.3 per cent rise, boosted by a 6.4 per cent jump in department store sales.
Activity in the manufacturing sector rose for the first time in two years on the back of a falling dollar and lower interest rates. The Australian Industry Group's Performance of Manufacturing Index rose 5.3 points to 51.7 in September.
At the same time, capital city home values hit a record high last month, led by Sydney, which grew 5.2 per cent. In contrast, prices fell in Hobart by 3 per cent.
The Reserve cautiously acknowledged the improving economic data and lifting sentiment, in an indication that it was "comfortably on hold in the near-term", ANZ chief economist for Australia Ivan Colhoun said.
While the rapid rise in house prices has dominated headlines in recent days, Mr Stevens only briefly touched on the property sector, noting an increased demand in finance by households.
Mr Stevens added that "the easing in monetary policy since late 2011 has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values" but that the full effects were "still coming through".
"Importantly, there was no upgrade to the bank's easing bias, which suggests a reduced likelihood of any further reduction in interest rates occurring before Christmas," Mr Colhoun said.
The Reserve Bank has jawboned in recent months about the need for a weaker exchange rate. Mr Stevens repeated the bank's stance in his statement.
"We suspect that policymakers would prefer to see any further easing in monetary conditions come through a lower Australian dollar," Commonwealth Bank senior economist John Peters said.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
The Reserve Bank left the cash rate at a record low 2.5% for the second month in a row. For everyday investors, that generally means borrowing costs stay relatively low (supporting mortgage holders and interest‑sensitive sectors) while returns on cash and some fixed income products are likely to remain subdued until policy changes.
The RBA kept rates on hold because recent economic data showed signs of recovery — manufacturing and retail activity improved — but the bank gave little firm guidance on future moves. Economists described the RBA as a “reluctant rate cutter,” suggesting the easing cycle may be winding down, though one more cut is still possible if conditions (like a weaker inflation print and an unexpected AUD rise) change.
Economists noted a slim possibility of one more cut later this year or early next year if several things happen together: mining investment peaks, the Australian dollar rises unexpectedly, and third‑quarter inflation data comes in weaker than expected. At the same time, ANZ said the bank did not upgrade its easing bias, which reduces the likelihood of a cut before Christmas.
Key data points highlighted in the article include retail sales rising a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in August (beating expectations) and the Australian Industry Group’s Performance of Manufacturing Index climbing 5.3 points to 51.7 in September, the first manufacturing expansion in two years. Upcoming third‑quarter inflation figures were also flagged as important for policy direction.
The Australian dollar rose more than half a cent after the RBA statement, moving from about US93.40¢ to just under US94¢ and trading around US94.21¢ late on Tuesday. The RBA has publicly preferred a weaker exchange rate because a lower AUD helps deliver any further easing in monetary conditions without additional rate cuts, according to commentary from Commonwealth Bank economists.
The article notes capital city home values hit a record high last month, led by Sydney (up 5.2%), and the RBA said easing since late 2011 has supported interest‑sensitive spending and asset values. The bank also observed increased household demand for finance, indicating property strength is part of the picture the RBA is weighing when setting policy.
Yes — the Australian sharemarket fell slightly in choppy trading after the RBA held rates, and the article linked that weakness in part to a US partial government shutdown after Congress failed to agree on a new budget. Global political or economic shocks can add short‑term volatility for investors.
Based on the article’s coverage, consider these practical steps: expect borrowers to benefit from continued low rates in the near term; savers should be realistic about low cash returns; watch upcoming inflation data and the AUD for signals of policy change; and monitor property and manufacturing/retail recovery trends that could affect stock and property markets. The RBA’s cautious tone suggests avoiding big, interest‑rate‑sensitive bets until there’s clearer guidance.
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