Summary: The price of crude oil could test its August low, with possible further falls driven by sentiment and Western governments’ desire for low inflation. The market is still net long crude oil but short positions are elevated. The market is set for the biggest glut of crude in at least 20 years but the amount of excess supply is nothing to get excited about.
Key take-out: Nearly every forecaster looks for the price of crude to rise over time and I think that is the right call based on the fundamentals. But the short-term momentum certainly favours continued downside.