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Newcrest mining cashing up

The market ponders the ambitions of Newcrest's new managing director, Greg Robinson.
By · 9 Nov 2011
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9 Nov 2011
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The market ponders the ambitions of Newcrest's new managing director, Greg Robinson.

THE market has been left to ponder the merger and acquisition ambitions of Newcrest's new managing director, Greg Robinson, after the leading gold company said it would pull in $US1 billion from a long-term bond issue.

That was because the lightly geared Newcrest does not need the funds, even if it is planning to spend as much as $9 billion in the next five years increasing its gold production by 50 per cent to 4 million ounces from existing ''in-house'' growth opportunities.

Newcrest is spending $2.2 billion on its Cadia East project in New South Wales and $700 million on the expansion of the Lihir mine in Papua New Guinea. Those two projects provide most of the planned growth in the next five years.

Beyond that, the half-owned Wafi-Golpu project in PNG is being banked on to underwrite a major push beyond 4 million ounces of gold a year. South Africa's Harmony owns the other half of Wafi-Golpu and the market suspects Newcrest wants to make the project all its own.

Newcrest's heavy capital expenditure program is expected to be funded by operating cash flow thanks to bumper gold prices and strong prices for the group's byproduct production of copper.

Newcrest's statement to the ASX said the bond issue would be used to repay existing unsecured debts as well as fund a ''portion of Newcrest's major growth projects''.

Mr Robinson was quoted as saying Newcrest had simply taken advantage of its ability to raise some ''very competitive long-term capital'', which would ''further diversify Newcrest's sources of funding''. Newcrest also has a $US2 billion shorter-term debt facility with its eight relationship banks.

Short of Newcrest following up its successful takeover of Lihir Gold with another acquisition, analysts said the bond issue would heighten Newcrest's ability to increase dividend payments and accelerate development projects - all while maintaining a preferred ceiling on its gearing levels of 15 per cent.

Mr Robinson was last month forced to defend Newcrest's dividend record after criticism on gold company payouts by its biggest shareholder and the world's biggest mining fund manager, BlackRock.

BlackRock had earlier argued that gold producers' low payout ratios were one of the reasons why gold stocks had lagged behind the surge in gold prices.

Mr Robinson said Newcrest was already at the higher end of dividend payers in the gold sector.

''We are roughly at a 1.5 per cent yield with that normal [30? a share] and special dividend [20? a share] that we paid - and that would be in amongst the top in the gold industry,'' Mr Robinson said last month.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

Newcrest announced it would raise US$1 billion through a long‑term bond issue. The company said the move was to repay existing unsecured debt and to fund a portion of its major growth projects, and management described it as taking advantage of very competitive long‑term capital while diversifying sources of funding.

Newcrest plans to fund most of its heavy capital expenditure through operating cash flow, supported by strong gold prices and robust prices for its copper byproduct. The company is also using a US$1 billion long‑term bond and maintains a US$2 billion shorter‑term debt facility with eight relationship banks to diversify funding sources.

Newcrest aims to grow gold production by about 50% to roughly 4 million ounces over the next five years from existing in‑house growth opportunities. The Cadia East project in New South Wales (about US$2.2 billion) and the Lihir expansion in Papua New Guinea (about US$700 million) provide most of the planned growth, while the half‑owned Wafi‑Golpu project is expected to underpin further expansion beyond 4 million ounces.

The market has speculated that the bond enhances Newcrest’s M&A capacity because the company is lightly geared and the funds add balance‑sheet flexibility. The article notes particular market suspicion that Newcrest might want to take full ownership of the half‑owned Wafi‑Golpu project (the other half is owned by Harmony), but Newcrest’s stated uses were debt repayment and funding part of growth projects rather than a confirmed acquisition plan.

Analysts suggested the bond could heighten Newcrest’s ability to increase dividend payments and accelerate development projects while keeping its preferred gearing ceiling of around 15%. Newcrest’s managing director defended the company’s dividend record after criticism from large shareholder BlackRock, saying Newcrest is at the higher end of dividend payers in the gold sector and citing a roughly 1.5% yield including normal and special dividends.

In addition to the newly announced US$1 billion long‑term bond, Newcrest has a US$2 billion shorter‑term debt facility arranged with eight relationship banks. Management said the bond will further diversify the group’s sources of funding.

Analysts view the bond as positive because it provides long‑term capital that can support project development and dividend flexibility without materially increasing gearing beyond the company’s target ceiling. Coupled with strong gold and copper byproduct prices and expected operating cash flow, the bond is seen as helping accelerate growth plans.

Investors should monitor progress and cost control at Cadia East and the Lihir expansion, developments around the Wafi‑Golpu project and any M&A moves, commodity price trends for gold and copper (which underpin funding assumptions), Newcrest’s use of the bond proceeds (debt repayment versus project spend), and any changes in dividend policy or gearing levels relative to the company’s stated ~15% ceiling.