Making sense of Melbourne Cup mayhem

Racing and Sports

It has not been order of entry rules or human handicapping or even vet checks that has led to a Melbourne Cup field this Tuesday that at least gives some younger and in-form stayers a chance.

None of those things has helped at all this year in giving clearly better in form and winning gallopers a start or at least a chance of a start over long time non-winners and older out of form horses.

It has been the skies and pounding precipitation that has allowed many a last gasp shot at November glory.

A new set of Melbourne Cup qualifying rules and criteria is desperately needed that is modern and based on common sense plus, importantly, recent form, as you cannot rely on the weather every year to ease a near debacle such as 2010.

Just pause for a second and consider the top three in the weights right now in the Melbourne Cup, as it makes the case loud and clear that change is needed.

The big drag

Shocking, the winner last year, is a fitting topweight now but he should have been there to start with and not a kilo behind Alandi and the 'never get to the post anymore' Efficient.

Campanologist has never raced over or won at further than 2400m, so we know Godolphin is good but the number two saddlecloth?

So You Think is a freakish four-year-old and unbeaten this spring but he only made the field last week after winning the Cox Plate, his second win in that race in consecutive years, so why did he not get the all clear tick from last year?

The number four saddlecloth is held by the marvel nine-year-old Zipping and the number five saddlecloth is held by the eight-year-old from Great Britain in Illustrious Blue that has not raced since August.

The Geelong Cup winner Americain is number eight and the Caulfield Cup winner Descarado is number eleven.

Profound Beauty is number sixteen and you can hear Dermot Weld laughing now despite the bad weather, as that mare has won six G3 or Listed races since finishing fifth in the 2008 Melbourne Cup.

This is an interesting mare and runner, as three runners from the 2008 Cup are back again with her and it gives you an insight into the chaos of 2010.

Profound Beauty finished fifth and carried 51.5kg in 2008.

She has had nine starts since for six wins, two seconds (the last start runner up at G1 was to Sans Frontieres, which was elevated to topweight for the Cup after the win with a 2kg penalty before being withdrawn) and a fourth and has 54kg in 2010.

Bauer finished second and carried 52kg in 2008.

He has had just two starts since in two years through injury and has finished fifth then fourth and has 53.5kg in 2010.

Master O'Reilly finished fourth and carried 55kg in 2008.

He has had eighteen starts since for no wins and just two third placings and in 2010 has 54kg.

Zipping finished ninth and carried 54kg in 2008.

He has had eleven starts since for four wins (two at G1 and two at G2), two placings (each time in the G1 Cox Plate behind the freak So You Think) and five misses and in 2010 he has 55.5kg.

On that evidence Profound Beauty and Zipping look pitch-forked into the race.

Another heavy slog?

Flemington was an energy sapping oatmeal on Derby Day for the latter part of the card and thoroughbred horses are not machines, so they get dulled and tired and injury niggles become exacerbated.

The Caulfield Cup Day a fortnight ago was also held on a heart-straining bog, so it was no surprise that some that ran then collapsed quicker than a house of cards on Derby Day.

Some may have shown they are natural wet trackers and raced and fought well again but instead of a two and a half week turnaround they will now face a three day backup to Cup Day.

Will those that performed on Caulfield Cup Day be up for another slog having not raced in the interim?

Will horses that have not been drained and dulled and depowered by the wet tracks in Australia on the major spring racedays actually hold the upper hand in a stamina test over the closing stages?

There seems to be more overseas raiders this year that were selected or bought or brought over, with a top of the ground and turn of foot quotient factored in so this Flemington rain must be annoying.

The trackman at Flemington at least cannot be accused of watering the track on Cup Day morning to help the locals, as any bleating will should be greeted with a free rain hat.

It is too easy to say the best horse won on a wet track, as that is hardly ever true.

The best swimmer won may be a more apt moniker, as the speed and ability to accelerate gets totally eliminated from the good horses and makes the slower or less able to quicken gallopers idle along and still keep up.

Fitness can win the Cup the closing stages but if a galloper is over the top come Tuesday then too many lead up races in testing conditions will finally take a toll because there is nowhere to hide at 3200m.

A holding or grippy track on Tuesday would actually be worse than a loose water-logged canal, as the sticky track is the one that stops horses in their tracks and empties bettors pockets faster than a giant hole could ever do.

Coming of age

The youngest horse in the field, which has not actually turned four yet, is the best form horse and he only qualified last weekend by winning the G1 Cox Plate, with his name being So You Think.

The form of the younger gallopers is far more impressive and recent and believable than many of the gallopers they will face on Tuesday that are double in age.

The four-year-olds are all showing good form in the main and have at least won a race in the last six months or at the least placed in a Group event of spring significance.

The older local gallopers have far worse form or formlines than the overseas grey power raiders in the main.

If you line up Master O'Reilly, Red Ruler and Buccellati say versus Illustrious Blue, Tokai Trick and Bauer the overseas old boys stand up to scrutiny far better.

Every horse in the 2010 Melbourne Cup field has finished either first, second or third at its last three starts except Master O'Reilly, Red Ruler and Buccellati and Zavite, so maybe the latter being an eight-year-old is the first local emergency.

Red Ruler and Zavite have finished fourth once each in their last three starts, so there is not a struck match between them in the lack of recent form regard but the latter has won over 3200m twice and the former is yet to tackle it and in five starts at Flemington is yet to even place.

There are two nine-year-olds and four eight-year-olds in the 2010 Melbourne Cup field, so no age discrimination has taken place whatsoever this year.

It is also a tribute to the love of the thoroughbred horse by so many different stables and connections that so many older gallopers in such magnificent order will go down to the start of the 2010 Melbourne Cup.

The Melbourne Cup is not a stallion maker and in fact is considered a negative in many breeding circles, so the fact ten entires are found in the field in 2010 is quite staggering but clear proof that the $6 million stakemoney and associated 150th running for a place in racing history, has swayed many.

A grand galloping list

The Twelve Days of Christmas is about a list of increasingly grander gifts, so let's reverse that and make it a grand galloping list for the 2010 Melbourne Cup.

There is only one Bart even though he has dual Cup representation in 2010.

There are three grey gallopers in the 2010 Melbourne Cup field and you know the old horseman saying is rain on the day back the grey.

There are four sons of the boom stamina sire High Chaparral in the 2010 Melbourne Cup field.

There are five last start winners in the 2010 Melbourne Cup field and five runners that start with the letter 'M'.

The first six home in the Caulfield Cup run on a testing heavy track, which were a margin clear of the rest, will all line up in the 2010 Melbourne Cup field.

There are seven four-year-olds but as explained in the opening pars, it was a meteorological fluke that happened and nothing to do with order of entry rules, handicapping or even a flurry of hard to justify at times rehandicaps.

The number eight crops up more often than any other in the 2010 Melbourne Cup, with eight career wins so far runners (So You Think, Tokai Trick, Buccellati, Master O'Reilly) or eight total starts runners (Linton and Maluckyday) or eight-year-olds (Illustrious Blue, Master O'Reilly, Zavite and Bauer) or the number of runners with eight letters (Shocking, Mr Medici, Shoot Out, Manighar and Red Ruler).

There are nine runners trained outside of Australia and New Zealand, which owning to that Anzac spirit considers anything else foreigners, that will line up in the 2010 Melbourne Cup field.

There are ten runners in the 2010 Melbourne Cup field that have not won a race in their last three starts.

There are eleven runners in the 2010 Melbourne Cup that have had twenty starts or less lifetime.

There are twelve runners in the 2010 Melbourne Cup field that are trained in Australia and of course iconic trainer Bart Cummings currently sits on twelve wins in the great race.

United racing nations

Well done to Godolphin and Saeed Bin Suroor, Bart Cummings, Team Williams and Robert Hickmott, Gai Waterhouse and Luca and Team Cumani for getting two runners apiece into the 2010 Melbourne Cup field.

Super achievement despite some tense and testing times, wild weather and a lacking in common sense order of entry drama that could and should have been easily averted a long time ago.

There are seventeen runners in the field this year that have won on slow footing and just five that have scored in heavy going, so a tough Tuesday lies ahead if the rain does not abate.

Remember only Australian, New Zealand, Irish and a Japanese trained galloper has won the Melbourne Cup coming up to a century and a half of runnings and the Dermot Weld double came in 1993 and 2002 while the Katsuhiko Sumii success came in 2006, so it is a modern phenomenon.

Flemington has superb draining powers these days and only needs a days respite plus some heat and wind to bounce back brilliantly but that window of recovery looks down to just Monday unfortunately.

Can we see thirteen for Bart or a new country of training origin to add to the exclusive list such as France or the greatest week in the life of owner-breeder Phil Bayly or Gai make it spring of first Cups times two or the first ever nine-year-old capture the race?

Records are meant to be broken and Cups are meant to be polished but a 150th Melbourne Cup winning name on record is one that will live forever.

What a race and what a legend maker it has become.

Good luck and $3.6 million dollars is the winning cheque plus trophies to the value of 175K, whereby the owner, trainer, rider and strapper get to keep a priceless piece of Melbourne Cup memorabilia.

This article first appeared on Racing and Sports, reproduced with permission.