Extra $130b super savings tipped

Industry Super Network, the peak body for the union-backed sector, has used the report to attack claims from the for-profit sector that removing commissions for financial planners will destroy up to 35,000 jobs.

The report, prepared by Rice-Warner Actuaries, updates a similar report on the government's Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) policy, prepared by the same firm in March 2010. While the earlier report predicted the number of financial advisers would plunge by 23 per cent in the 14 years following the abolition of fees, the new report predicts that the number will be "broadly stable".

The difference reflects the removal from the FOFA rules of bans on asset-backed fees and on commissions for insurance, which generate about 40 per cent of adviser revenue, Rice-Warner said in the report.

"It's not that we've changed our minds, it's that there's been those two big changes," Rice-Warner's director, Richard Weatherhead, said.

Rice-Warner predicts that by 2026 FOFA will have raised retirement savings by $130 billion, in today's dollars.

"It's basically driven by the fact that if you've got a product with commissions coming out at the moment and that commission reduces, there's more in it," Mr Weatherhead said.

By 2026 FOFA will slash adviser remuneration by $1.6 billion a year, Rice-Warner estimates.

In parliamentary hearings last month, representatives of the for-profit sector estimated the reform package would slash between 25,000 and 30,000 jobs from the finance industry.

Claims that up to 35,000 jobs could be lost were described as "silly" by the executive director of Treasury's markets group, Jim Murphy, who told the hearing they were based in part on outdated assumptions contained in Rice-Warner's previous report. Rice-Warner now predicts the number of full-service advisers will drop by 3000 over 15 years, but this will be partly offset by an increase in advisers offering piece-by-piece advice of about 2200.

Mr Weatherhead said Rice-Warner had not modelled the knock-on effect on backroom jobs of cutting adviser numbers.

"Given that as you can see you've only got a 5 per cent reduction over 15 years, it's only going to be a small number anyway," he said.

But he admitted Rice-Warner's modelling depended on advisers being legally able to offer advice on a piece-by-piece or "scaled" basis, rather than having to provide full-scale advice to every customer.