Dollar tipped to hit US85¢ low
Analysts have sharply revised down their forecasts for the currency, as the sharemarket fell for the fourth straight day on Friday, and notched up its biggest weekly loss in 18 months. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.5 per cent, to 4964.3, ending below 5000 points for the first time in a month.
This took total losses for the week to 3.8 per cent. The broader All Ords was down 78.9 points, or 1.6 per cent, to 4983.5. After a brief rally on Friday, the dollar pulled back late in the session to US96.86¢, to trade near one-year lows. It has taken a wild ride this month amid global expectations the US Federal Reserve is poised to reduce its massive stimulus program.
The program - which has seen US$85billion a month pumped into the economy - has kept the US dollar low. At the same time there are growing fears that the economy of Australia's biggest trading partner, China, could be rapidly slowing, a factor playing havoc with bulk commodity prices.
Brokerage Credit Suisse is the most bearish on the outlook for the Australian dollar, with the global investment bank predicting it to shift to a low of US85¢ by next May.
Credit Suisse said it had been "too timid" in its previous forecasts, noting that the structural fall in the dollar had happened more quickly than expected. The investment bank forecast the Australian dollar to fall to US92¢ within three months.
HSBC said it was strength in the US dollar that would be the key driver for the direction of the local unit, and lowered its year-end estimate for the Australian dollar to US90¢ from US95¢.
UBS, meanwhile, revised down its year-end and mid-2014 forecasts to US95¢ and US90¢ respectively.
"We conclude that the tide is slowly turning against the Australian dollar and we lower our forecasts accordingly," UBS economists and strategists said.
The weaker dollar is also expected reduce the likelihood of a back-to-back interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank board meeting in June, ANZ senior economist Riki Polygenis said.
But continued weakness in the Australian economy meant another 25 basis points rate cut before the end of the year remained likely, she added.
HSBC flagged Australia's entry into the global "currency war" after the Reserve Bank's move to slash interest rates earlier this month. Since the decision, the currency has fallen nearly 6 per cent.
The bank said the success of central banks in influencing the foreign exchange market - sparked off by the Swiss National Bank's success in capping the franc, coupled with low inflation - had kept the "currency war" going.
Analysts said the Australian dollar's fall had also reopened the door to its link with commodity prices. In the past two years, the currency has remained strong despite the weakness in commodity prices, defying the historical correlation between the two.
But that divergence - a result of higher Australian interest rates compared with other countries, Australia's "safe haven" image and the mining investment boom - was ending, Credit Suisse analysts said.
"The Australian dollar has weathered commodity price weakness before, but this time around portfolio inflows are too feeble to provide an effective counterbalance," UBS said.
Meanwhile, a highly regarded former fund manager from Colonial First State, Greg Perry, raised doubts over whether investors would continue to bid up Australian stocks by chasing high-yielding shares.
He questioned how much further the run of yield-induced gains had to run, saying the dynamic was "very mature".
"I wonder where you stop," he told at a Wilson HTM conference in Sydney.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
Analysts cite a mix of factors: renewed strength in the US dollar as markets price back a reduction in the US Federal Reserve's stimulus, a slowing Chinese economy hitting bulk commodity prices, and fading portfolio inflows that previously supported the AUD. Credit Suisse specifically revised its forecasts and predicted the AUD could slide to about US85¢ by next May.
Credit Suisse warned the AUD could fall to US92¢ within three months and to US85¢ by next May. HSBC lowered its year‑end estimate to about US90¢ (from US95¢). UBS trimmed its year‑end and mid‑2014 forecasts to roughly US95¢ and US90¢ respectively.
The article notes the sharemarket fell for a fourth straight day with the S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 4,964.3 and finishing below 5,000 for the first time in a month. The week’s total losses were about 3.8%, and the broader All Ordinaries fell 1.6% to 4,983.5.
HSBC pointed out that strength in the US dollar is a key driver for the AUD’s direction. Expectations that the US Fed will scale back its large stimulus program have pushed the USD higher, which in turn puts downward pressure on the AUD.
Yes. ANZ senior economist Riki Polygenis said the weaker AUD reduces the likelihood of a back‑to‑back rate cut at the next RBA meeting, but she also noted that continued weakness in the Australian economy leaves another 25 basis point cut before year‑end still likely.
The article explains that the AUD’s historic link to commodity prices is reasserting itself. Falling bulk commodity prices and concerns about China’s slowdown are weighing on the currency, reversing a recent period when the AUD stayed strong despite commodity weakness.
Greg Perry, a former Colonial First State fund manager, expressed doubts that investors would keep bidding up Australian stocks simply to chase high yields. He described the yield-chasing dynamic as 'very mature' and questioned how much further it could run, signaling caution for yield-driven strategies.
Investors should monitor US Fed policy signals and any tapering of stimulus, commodity price trends and China economic indicators, RBA decisions on interest rates, and movements in the ASX 200. These factors were highlighted by analysts and banks as central to the AUD and Australian market direction.
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