China bears are safe to come out

Major institutions like the World Bank and the Asia Development Bank have been behind the curve on China because of self-censorship. That kept research bullish long after cracks began to appear.

I was invited by the Asian Development Bank headquarters in Manila last year to give a talk on China’s economic challenges including whether its economy could ‘rebalance’ away from investment by increasing consumption, and whether the county was ready for its demographic challenges ahead. After accepting the invitation, I was subsequently told that it was standard ADB policy that I refrain from criticising the Chinese Communist Party and its role in the country’s economy, and it would be preferable if I did not directly criticise their policies.


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