Bet the Lodge: A one-horse race

While the only certainties in life are death and taxes, the next best thing according to the betting markets is Mr Abbott and his Coalition parties forming the government after the September 7 election.

The best odds around at the moment for the Coalition is $1.03 with a number of the betting agencies, while $1.02 is more common. For Labor, Luxbet are offering a thumping $16 for a Labor win, although a more common price is around $12 or $13. These odds suggest that it is all but over.

Soon after Mr Rudd returned to the Labor Party leadership in late June, the odds were as narrow as $1.40 for the Coalition and $2.80 for Labor. The flow of money towards the Coalition and away from Labor has been unrelenting and huge.

Given the skinny odds for a likely Coalition win, there are a range of other exotic markets that are based on a thumping Coalition victory.

The various betting agencies are offering odds on the individual House of Representatives seats and, not surprisingly, the coalition parties are ahead in around 90 to 95 (betting agencies have several instances of different favourites in a number of seats).

In the 150-member House of Representatives, the Coalition is $2.50 to win more than 100 seats, while it is $101 to win less than 50. This indicates the potential size of the Coalition win. For the Labor Party faithful, there is one shining light (albeit a dim one) that is offering odds of $1.001 (that’s a bet of $1000 to win $1) that the Coalition will not win a majority in the Senate.

There are some odds for the minor parties that suggest they have little hope. For Clive Palmer’s United Party, 'zero seat wins' is the hot $1.03 favourite. For the Greens, it is likely that they will lose their only seat, Melbourne, with zero seat wins a $1.22 favourite.

Given the likely demise of Labor and Rudd, there is even a market on who will next lead the Labor Party. Interestingly, Anthony Albanese is the $2.75 favourite followed by Bill Shorten at $3, Chris Bowen at $5, Peter Beattie at $8 and Jason Clare at $9.

If the other odds are correct and the election result is a landslide, it might not be a job these people will actually want.

There is also a market on who will next lead the Liberal Party. In the event of a shock loss, Joe Hockey is the $2.10 favourite to replace Tony Abbott, followed by $2.50 for Malcolm Turnbull, $6 for Julie Bishop and $13 for Scott Morrison. It might take a while before the bookies need to pay out on this one.

For those with a gambling problem, please see www.problemgambling.gov.au