The market for small-scale renewable energy certificates or STCs, which provide a rebate on solar systems, was originally intended to clear at a price close to $40. Each year the regulator was to commission solar market forecasters to estimate the likely uptake of small-scale renewable energy systems assuming a rebate built on $40 per STC.
Yet instead STC prices have traditionally been well below $40 as the forecasters massively underestimated solar PV uptake. The end result was a huge oversupply of STCs.
But this year has been quite different.