WEEKEND ECONOMIST: Shifting into neutral

In the Reserve Bank's quest to achieve the ideal 'steady state', expect a series of cautious hikes starting in March.

In a move that surprised the markets, the Reserve Bank decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent at their February meeting. We were no different to other market participants. In fact we wrote in the December edition of this report that we confidently expected a move when market pricing was just 30 per cent probability. By the time the RBA decision was announced, market probabilities had firmed to around 80 per cent. The result was the most surprising in many years.

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