WEEKEND ECONOMIST: No pause

Despite some uncertainty amongst market commentators and caution from Christmas shoppers, the RBA remains on track to raise rates by 25 basis points in December.

The minutes from the November 3 Reserve Bank Board meeting have adopted a much more dovish style than we saw from the October minutes. Given that the Bank decided to only raise rates by 25 basis points following those October minutes, it appears that the strong language from October was most focussed on justifying the somewhat earlier-than-expected beginning to the tightening cycle, rather than revealing a high degree of urgency with regard to the tightening task ahead. In November, no such justification was required, given that the debate was really about whether the RBA moved by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. This moderate language can also be interpreted as supporting the more modest adjustment option.

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