Weekend Economist: Fragile China

Despite the fact that there has been little change in the RBA’s forecasts there are some interesting comments on the Chinese housing market.

As we expected, the Reserve Bank made minimal changes to their growth and inflation forecasts in the November statement on monetary policy (SoMP). They retained the call that growth to December 2014 would be 2½ per cent; to December 2015 would be 2½-3½ per cent; and to December 2016 2¾-3¾ per cent. On the inflation front underlying inflation is still forecast at 2¼ per cent to December 2014 and 2¼-3¼ per cent to December 2015. There has been a modest lift in the inflation forecast to December 2016 from 2-3 per cent in August to 2¼-3¼ per cent in this November SoMP. The RBA attributes that slightly higher inflation forecast to the lower Australian dollar which is used in the November forecasts. Specifically, the forecasts are based on an Australian dollar trade-weighted index of 68 and US dollar 0.86. That compares with TWI 72 and USD 0.93 in August. The key exchange rate for the forecasts is the TWI which is assessed as 4½ per cent lower than in August. 



{{ twilioFailed ? 'SMS Code Failed to Send…' : 'An SMS verification code has been sent ...' }}

Hi {{ user.FirstName }}

Looks like you have already taken a free trial

Please enter your payment details

We have sent you a code via SMS to {{user.DayPhone}}

please enter this code below to complete your SMS verification

We cannot send you a code via SMS to {{user.DayPhone}}

If you didn't receive SMS code please

SMS code cannot be sent due to: {{ twilioStatus }}

Please select one of the options below:

Looks you are already a member. Please enter your password to proceed

Please untick this box when using a public or shared device

Verify your mobile number to proceed...

Please check your mobile number below and press the Send Verification Code button. This will be used to complete your verification in the next step.

Please sign up for full access


Updating information

Please wait ...


{{ productPrice }} / day
( GST included )
Price $0
GST $0
Discount -{{productDiscount}}
TOTAL {{productPrice}}
  • Mastercard
  • Visa

Please click on the ACTIVATE button to finalise your membership


The email address you entered is registered with InvestSMART.

Please login or select "Don't know password"

Please untick this box when using a public or shared device

Register as a new member

(using a different email)

Related Articles