Weekend Economist: Disoriented doves

The doves are pointing to weaker economic data and dour confidence figures for rate cut calls. But both are not what they seem.

The balance of partial indicators suggest that growth momentum in the Australian economy has slowed markedly over the last three months since the lead up to the federal budget.

Because most high frequency data is around the consumer and housing, most evidence in that regard can be found in that sector. House price inflation (6-month annualised) has slowed markedly in all of the major cities - Sydney (17 per cent (to March)) to 12 per cent (to June)); Melbourne (13 per cent to 8 per cent); Brisbane (6 per cent to 4 per cent); and Perth (6 per cent to flat). New housing finance approvals have slowed from 33 per cent in February to 2.2 per cent in May (6-month annualised growth rate).

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Bill Evans
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