Upgrades to A330 fleet promised as Qantas flies higher
Although the capacity glut in the domestic market has eased recently, the plans to upgrade Qantas' fleet of A330s used on Australia's key transcontinental route threatens to spark a strong response from Virgin.
While the battle has benefited flyers in the form of cheap fares, Qantas' premium domestic operations revealed the extent of the pain by posting a 34 per cent drop in first-half earnings to $218 million.
Jetstar's earnings fell 13 per cent because of the stiff competition from Tiger Airways in the domestic market and the cost of starting ventures in Japan and Hong Kong.
Investors took comfort from strong earnings in Qantas' frequent-flyer business and an improvement in its long-suffering international division, whose losses narrowed to $92 million, from $262 million, as it cut loss-making routes.
Qantas nearly trebled its bottom-line profit to $111 million in the first half, bolstered by compensation from Boeing for "opportunity delays" to the late delivery of 787 Dreamliners.
Qantas posted a 10 per cent rise in underlying profit before tax to $223 million, which was better than analysts had expected. Total revenue rose 2 per cent to $8.2 billion.
Shares in Qantas rose as much as 6 per cent on Thursday, before closing up 4.5¢ at $1.66 on a day when the broader market tumbled more than 2 per cent.
"There are issues . . . but investors have more faith in [Qantas] management and their strategy," Peter Borkovec, an analyst at White Funds Management, said. "It is the right step in the right direction."
Qantas has not given earnings guidance for the second half because of volatile conditions. But it has revealed that it will incur costs of as much as $50 million for shifting its main overseas hub from Singapore to Dubai as part of its alliance with Emirates.
In the domestic market, Qantas and Jetstar bore the brunt of substantial declines in yields - returns on fares - in the first half, a period in which airlines make most of their money. It indicated that it expected an easing in the high levels of capacity in the medium term. It plans to boost capacity in the domestic market by 5 to 7 per cent in the second half, a reduction from the growth levels in the first half.
Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce said the reconfiguration of the wide-body A330 planes on domestic routes would help the airline "leapfrog anything the competitors are doing".
"We have seen the competitor change the strategy multiple times. Virgin has given up the low-cost end of the market and gone to the premium end," he said. "The performance of Tiger clearly shows that Jetstar is significantly outperforming Tiger at the leisure end."
The upgrade to Qantas' 30-strong fleet of A330s - 20 of which fly on domestic routes - from late 2014 includes flat seats in business class, a refreshed economy cabin and a new in-flight entertainment system. The airlines will also buy five new Boeing 737-800 planes and extend the lease on two others.
Mr Joyce said it was difficult to gauge the extent to which competition in the domestic market would ease in the second half because Virgin had yet to deliver its earnings, and the competition regulator would not make a final ruling on its plans to take control of Tiger Airways until next month.
Virgin's intention to triple the size of Tiger's fleet to 35 planes in Australia if it does win approval for its bid looms as a danger to Jetstar's longer-term earnings here.
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Qantas shares jumped because the airline reported stronger-than-expected underlying profit and showed signs of improvement across key units. Underlying profit before tax rose 10% to $223 million, total revenue increased 2% to $8.2 billion, the frequent-flyer business was strong, and international division losses narrowed—factors that gave investors confidence and helped the stock rise as much as 6% intraday (closing up 4.5¢ at $1.66).
Qantas plans to upgrade its 30-strong A330 fleet (20 of which fly domestic routes) from late 2014 with flat seats in business class, refreshed economy cabins and a new in-flight entertainment system. For investors, the A330 upgrades signal a push to strengthen premium domestic services, potentially helping Qantas defend market share and improve yield on key transcontinental routes amid competition from Virgin.
Key first-half results: Qantas nearly trebled its bottom-line profit to $111 million, underlying profit before tax rose 10% to $223 million, total revenue increased 2% to $8.2 billion, premium domestic earnings fell 34% to $218 million, international division losses narrowed to $92 million (from $262 million), and Jetstar earnings fell 13%.
Qantas’ improved bottom-line profit was helped by compensation from Boeing for 'opportunity delays' related to late delivery of 787 Dreamliners. That compensation bolstered first-half profit, contributing to the near trebling of the airline’s reported profit to $111 million.
Qantas plans to boost domestic capacity by 5–7% in the second half, a reduction from the stronger growth in the first half. It is upgrading A330s to strengthen premium services and adding five new Boeing 737-800s while extending leases on two others. These moves aim to respond to competition from Virgin Australia and Tiger Airways, which have reshaped strategies in the domestic market.
If Virgin wins approval to take control of Tiger Airways and triples Tiger’s Australian fleet to 35 planes, it could intensify competition and pressure Jetstar’s longer-term earnings. The competition regulator’s final ruling on the Virgin-Tiger plans was due next month, making the outcome a key regulatory risk to monitor.
Qantas said shifting its main overseas hub from Singapore to Dubai as part of its alliance with Emirates could incur costs of up to $50 million. Strategically, the move is part of the alliance with Emirates to realign international operations, but the one-off transition costs are a near-term expense investors should account for.
Qantas has not given earnings guidance for the second half due to volatile conditions. Investors should watch domestic capacity changes, competitive moves by Virgin and Tiger, the impact of A330 upgrades and 737 additions, progress in the Emirates hub shift (and its up-to-$50 million cost), and further signs of recovery in the international division and frequent-flyer business.

