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THE WEEK AHEAD

The Reserve Bank's rates decision will headline the week ahead, while GDP, current accounts and trade balance data are on tap.
By · 31 Aug 2012
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31 Aug 2012
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The first week post earnings season brings the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting for the month of September.

In other local news, second-quarter gross domestic product data is due, along with national account and trade balance figures.

Overseas, manufacturing and productivity data is due in the US, while both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will make interest rate decisions.

A quieter week in company news sees BHP Billiton, Lend Lease and AMP go ex-dividend.

RBA

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its September policy meeting, where it will makes its decision on the official cash rate for the month.

Investors will wait anxiously for the decision, after the minutes of the central bank's August meeting indicated the RBA was happy with current interest rate settings but keeping a wary eye on developments abroad.

Analysts are tipping the bank will leave the official cash rate on hold at 3.5 per cent, the third consecutive time the bank will have sat on its hands.

Most analysts are still forecasting at least one further rate cut before the end of the year.

Local news

A big week in local news brings a suite of releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics along with a chunk of private data.

On Monday, retail trade data for July is due from the ABS, along with business indicators for the June quarter.

Analysts are expecting the data to show retail sales lifted 0.6 per cent in the month.

Elsewhere, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group will release August job advertisements data, alongside the latest TD Securities-Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for the month.

The Australian Industry Group purchasing managers index is also on tap.

Tuesday sees June quarter current account balance data released by the ABS.

Wednesday brings gross domestic product data for the June quarter from the ABS. Experts are tipping the figures to show the economy grew by around 1 per cent during the period, taking total annual growth to 4 per cent.

August labour force data will be released by the ABS on Thursday. The data is expected to show a gain of 11,000 jobs in the month.

Friday sees trade balance data for July made available by the ABS, while building approvals data for the month is also due. The figures are expected to show a $300 million deficit for the month of July.

Corporate

The week in company news looks rather thin in comparison to the marathon efforts of the last month.

The end of the official earnings season leaves a number of companies going ex-dividend.

On Monday, BHP Billiton and Challenger Financial Services Group will trade ex-dividend.

Greenpower Energy will hold an extraordinary general meeting.

Tuesday sees Collins Foods hold its annual general meeting.

Wednesday brings an AGM from AJ Lucas Group.

On Thursday, Lend Lease will trade ex-dividend.

Formworks and AMP trade ex-dividend on Friday.

Offshore

Overseas, United States markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

In the United Kingdom on Monday, Halifax house price data for the three months to August will be released.

Manufacturing data is due in China.

On Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index is scheduled in the US, along with construction spending data.

The figures are expected to show construction spending rose 0.5 per cent in the month.

Total car sales data for August will also be released.

The August purchasing managers index for construction is awaited in the UK.

Wednesday sees productivity and costs data released in the US.

In the UK, the Markit services purchasing managers index will be released.

On Thursday, Untied States jobless claims and the ADP employment report are awaited. The data is expected to show growth of 150,000 jobs in August.

The ISM non-manufacturing index will also be released, alongside the weekly Energy Information Association's petroleum status report. Experts tip the ISM gauge to be little changed from the last reading of 52.6.

Overseas, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will hold their September board meetings, where they will rule on the current level of interest rates.

Friday brings the latest US employment situation report, which includes average earnings and nonfarm payrolls data, as well as the unemployment rate.

Experts are expecting the employment data to show jobs growth of 128,000 in the month, taking the unemployment rate to 8.2 per cent.

A big day in the UK sees industrial production and manufacturing production for July released.

Elsewhere, the producer price index for August is on tap.

Wrapping up

Rounding off the week, Monday sees European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and European commissioners Oil Rehn, Jean Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier debate bank policy in Europe.

On Tuesday, the two-day RIU Good Oil Conference will kick off in Fremantle, Western Australia.

Industry and innovation minster Greg Combet will speak at a Committee for the Economic Development of Australia function in Newcastle.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group chairman John Morschel will be the guest speaker at a Trans-Tasman Business Circle luncheon in Sydney.

European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet in Europe, while Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti will meet with French President Franois Hollande.

Mr Van Rompuy and Mr Hollande are due to meet on Wednesday.

Thursday sees Bank of America Merrill Lynch hold its global industrials & materials conference In Boston in the US.

Friday sees Australian Tourism chairman Geoff Dixon speak at an Australian institute of Company Directors event in Cairns.

Insurance Australia Group chief executive officer and managing director Mike Wilkins will speak at a CEDA function in Brisbane.

Overseas, JP Morgan will hold its Asia Pacific Conference in Boston, while European Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht will speak on European-Russian relations.

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Shane White
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