The RBA's rates policy can't hold for much longer

The economy is either going into a downturn or a decent upswing, and a policy response will be needed soon.

There is little chance that we'll see the Reserve Bank move at today's meeting -- neither markets nor market economists (according to a Bloomberg survey) expect any change.

If that's the case, the cash rate will have been steady for 16 consecutive months -- the longest period of stability since 2004-06, when policy was changed only once in about two years.

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Adam Carr
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