The new technology half-life

It's easy to think that when a long-established industry is in decline to make way for an emerging technology that the new industry will be around for just as long as the old one. Not so, according to futurist Richard Watson. Watson's updated Extinction Chart, compiled with fellow futurist Ross Dawson, lists industries, behaviours and some other bits and pieces that have declined in previous decades and offers a few suggestions of things that won't see out the first half of this century.

In the 2020s column you'll notice that towards the top is the apparent end of post offices, not surprising considering the sheer number of emails that are sent everyday, many of which are at the expense of a letter. However, in the same decade Watson foresees the decline of email as well, which will be replaced by chatter – another name for social media.

So that means that Twitter will replace email? No, Twitter will decline in the same decade because it's too standalone and the companies that thrive will be the integrated social media vehicles. DVD and landline phones will also cease to be in the 2020s, with mobile phones following in the 2050s.

Click on the image below to go to a more detailed version to see if you agree with Watson's conclusions, some of which are serious, while others clearly aren't. His most obvious joke is the headliner for the things that died in the 1970s. Come on Richard, Elvis isn't dead.