The fragility of GDP glee

Had Washington's budget not subtracted from GDP growth over the past three years, the US economy would be around 4 per cent larger. It's a crucial point to consider as the election nears.

It goes to show how fragile financial markets are when they greet news of US quarterly GDP growth of 2.0 per cent (annualised) with glee. Stocks in the US closed well off their lows after the September quarter GDP outcome exceed the uninspired expectations of market economists. In the June quarter, annualised GDP growth was a paltry 1.3 per cent, meaning the last six months in the US economy have been anemic.

To put the current growth momentum in some context, long-run annual trend GDP growth in the US is widely estimated to be close to 3 per cent. In fact in the last 30 years, GDP growth in the US has averaged 2.9 per cent, so near 3 per cent will do.



{{ twilioFailed ? 'SMS Code Failed to Send…' : 'An SMS verification code has been sent ...' }}

Hi {{ user.FirstName }}

Looks like you have already taken a free trial

Please enter your payment details

We have sent you a code via SMS to {{user.DayPhone}}

please enter this code below to complete your SMS verification

We cannot send you a code via SMS to {{user.DayPhone}}

If you didn't receive SMS code please

SMS code cannot be sent due to: {{ twilioStatus }}

Please select one of the options below:

Looks you are already a member. Please enter your password to proceed

Please untick this box when using a public or shared device

Verify your mobile number to proceed...

Please check your mobile number below and press the Send Verification Code button. This will be used to complete your verification in the next step.

Please sign up for full access


Updating information

Please wait ...


{{ productPrice }} / day
( GST included )
Price $0
GST $0
Discount -{{productDiscount}}
TOTAL {{productPrice}}
  • Mastercard
  • Visa

Please click on the ACTIVATE button to finalise your membership


The email address you entered is registered with InvestSMART.

Please login or select "Don't know password"

Please untick this box when using a public or shared device

Register as a new member

(using a different email)

Related Articles