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Sweet relief at hand

There are ways to mitigate the effects of a volatile sharemarket.
By · 1 Aug 2012
By ·
1 Aug 2012
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There are ways to mitigate the effects of a volatile sharemarket.

Share investors are faced with a conundrum. There's the emotional tug that says switch out of shares and share-based managed funds and go into the safety of cash.

But after years of woeful returns, Australian shares are looking cheap, with the shares of many high-quality companies on dividend yields that are much higher than can be earned on fixed interest or cash. Telstra, for example, is on a cash dividend yield of about 8 per cent after franking credits, while the best-paying one-year term deposits are paying less than 5 per cent with no prospects of capital growth.

If interest rates move further down, those dividend yields on high-quality shares will look even more attractive.

Stabilisation of Europe's sovereign debt crisis is likely to be a precursor to any sustained turnaround on the Australian and global sharemarkets.

But with stabilisation still some way off, growth in the global economy will likely continue to be weak.

The situation in Europe may even get worse before it gets better.

But a senior research analyst at Morningstar, Julian Robertson, says those with share portfolios can take actions that will at least help mitigate the effects of a volatile sharemarket.

Investors should maintain a long-term approach. "Attempting to time markets or react to their whims on the basis of sentiment is generally a poor strategy for maintaining and growing wealth," Robertson says.

Returns on the Australian sharemarket have been particularly volatile since the onset of the GFC, with sharp swings from month to month.

To underline the difficulty trying to time the market, Robertson examined the 100 months to November 30, 2011, and found that if $10,000 had been invested in the Australian sharemarket at the beginning of the period, the closing value would have been $13,195, or a gain of 32 per cent. However, if the returns of the 10 best months are excluded, the closing value would be $7525, or a loss of 25 per cent.

Time in the market trumps trying to time the market.

"We believe that it is almost impossible to predict and profit from short-term market moves with any accuracy or consistency," he says.

Another strategy is "dollar-cost averaging". This is where investors drip-feed money into the market so they buy more shares for the same amount of money when the market is falling and fewer when the market is rising. That way investors are buying the shares at their average price over the long term, rather than running the risk of putting a big lump sum into the market only to have the market fall the next day.

This strategy could also be employed with a managed fund that invests in shares by having regular contributions going into the fund.

Another way of mitigating market volatility is to regularly rebalance the asset classes in an investment portfolio. Rebalancing is more about managing risk in a portfolio than enhancing returns, Robertson says. For example, if an investor has a split of 70 per cent "growth" investments such as shares and 30 per cent income investments such as bonds and cash, it's likely the income component would be much greater than 30 per cent now given the poor performance of shares.

That means the risk profile of the portfolio has changed over time to become more conservative when the investor's tolerance for risk is unchanged.

Investors could rebalance the portfolio back to 70/30 each year or two.

Strategies such as avoiding market timing, dollar-cost averaging and rebalancing will not eradicate the emotional tug markets have on investors but they will help manage the volatility of markets. Robertson says using a combination of these strategies, depending on individual circumstances, can help achieve long-term goals.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

To manage sharemarket volatility, maintain a long-term approach, avoid trying to time short-term moves, use dollar-cost averaging to drip-feed money into the market, and regularly rebalance your asset mix. These strategies won’t remove emotional reactions, but used together they help manage risk and keep you focused on long-term goals.

After years of weak returns, many high-quality Australian shares are trading at lower prices and offering dividend yields that are higher than what cash or one-year term deposits pay. The article notes some term deposits pay less than 5% with no capital growth, while companies like Telstra were on a cash dividend yield of about 8% after franking credits.

'Time in the market' means staying invested for the long term rather than trying to predict short-term market moves. Morningstar’s analysis showed that over a 100-month period to November 30, 2011, $10,000 invested in the Australian sharemarket became $13,195 (a 32% gain), but excluding the 10 best months would have left $7,525 (a 25% loss). Missing a few big months highlights why timing is risky.

Dollar-cost averaging is the practice of investing a fixed amount regularly so you buy more shares when prices fall and fewer when prices rise. Over time this produces an average purchase price and reduces the risk of investing a large lump sum just before a market drop. The same approach can be used by making regular contributions to a share-based managed fund.

Rebalancing means adjusting your asset allocation back to your target mix (for example 70% growth/30% income). If shares fall, the income portion can grow larger than intended, changing your portfolio’s risk profile. Rebalancing yearly or every two years helps restore your original risk exposure — it’s primarily a risk-management tool rather than a way to boost returns.

The article suggests stabilisation of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is likely a precursor to any sustained turnaround in Australian and global sharemarkets. Until stabilisation occurs, global economic growth is likely to remain weak and the situation in Europe could get worse before it improves, which would influence market volatility.

High dividend yields can make shares look more attractive than cash, especially when term deposit rates are low. However, the article doesn’t claim yields are guaranteed; it notes yields on high-quality shares are currently high and would look even more attractive if interest rates fall. Investors should weigh yield attractiveness alongside their long-term strategy and risk tolerance.

No — these strategies won’t eradicate the emotional tug markets exert on investors. But they are practical tools that help manage market volatility and decision-making. Using a combination of these approaches, tailored to individual circumstances, can improve the likelihood of achieving long-term investment goals.