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Short-sellers target engineers

Mining services companies are increasingly becoming the targets of short-sellers, as hedge funds swoop in on the industry as drilling contracts dry up.
By · 23 Sep 2013
By ·
23 Sep 2013
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Mining services companies are increasingly becoming the targets of short-sellers, as hedge funds swoop in on the industry as drilling contracts dry up.

Retail and media stocks remain the big hedge fund favourites, but engineering companies are also being targeted, with Transfield, UGL and Boart Longyear joining the S&P/ASX 200 Index's top 20 most shorted stocks in the past six months.

Engineering companies Bradken and Monadelphous are also on the list, Australian Securities and Investments Commission data shows. Hedge funds hold at least 10 per cent of the shares of all these companies, except Bradken.

Platypus Asset Management founder Donald Williams said short-sellers were responding to the negative sentiment weighing on the drilling and engineering sector since late last year, as the resources boom started to fade.

"It is a reflection of the view that the mining boom is over," he said.

But while the outlook for mining services remains weak, Mr Williams said much of that sentiment had already been factored into prices, making the short positions a bigger gamble.

"If you're shorting them here, you're pretty late to the party," he said. "The down move has been substantial and a lot of them are pretty cheap. You're basically expecting them to go broke."

Short-selling is when hedge funds and other investors borrow shares they do not own and sell them in the hope their price will go down. If it does, they buy back the shares at the lower price, return them to their owner and pocket the difference.

Bell Potter head of research Peter Quinton said hedge funds were responding to a report by UBS analysts this week, which forecast a 20 per cent global decline in mining company capital expenditure in calendar 2014.

"Just because the share price is down a lot already doesn't mean it couldn't go a lot lower," he said.

"When someone tells you global capital expenditure is going to fall by 20 per cent in a year, you've got to ask yourself, 'do I want to be exposed to those companies?"'

Engineering services group Transfield reported a heavy $250 million loss for the year to June, hit by impairment charges. Drill contractor Boart Longyear flagged further cuts amid the ongoing contraction in mining activity. It posted a net loss of $US329 million, down from a net profit of $US98 million a year earlier.

Hedge funds have been forced to change some of their favourite bets after a number of heavily shorted companies produced positive earnings for the 2013 financial year.

Flight Centre, a favourite due to the expected decline of bricks-and-mortar travel agencies, surprised short-sellers last month when it reported a record $246 million profit for the year to June.

Fairfax Media remains the most shorted company on the S&P/ASX 200, with 14 per cent of stock held by hedge funds. Myer is second with 13.4 per cent.
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

Hedge funds are short-selling mining services and engineering stocks because drilling contracts are drying up and negative sentiment has built up as the resources boom fades. Analysts and managers in the article point to falling demand and a UBS forecast of a 20% global decline in mining company capital expenditure in calendar 2014 as reasons behind the move.

Engineering and drilling companies named in the article as joining the S&P/ASX 200’s top 20 most shorted stocks include Transfield, UGL, Boart Longyear, Bradken and Monadelphous.

Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) data cited in the article shows hedge funds hold at least 10% of the shares in all the mentioned engineering and drilling companies except Bradken.

The article notes Transfield reported a heavy $250 million loss for the year to June, largely due to impairment charges, and drill contractor Boart Longyear posted a net loss of US$329 million (down from a net profit of US$98 million a year earlier) and flagged further cuts amid the mining slowdown.

Short-selling is when investors borrow shares they don't own, sell them hoping the price falls, then buy them back at a lower price to return to the lender and pocket the difference. Everyday investors should care because heavy short positions can signal market expectations of weakness, can increase volatility in a stock, and can be risky if a shorted company reports unexpectedly strong results.

Yes. The article points out that some heavily shorted companies produced positive earnings in the 2013 financial year, forcing hedge funds to change bets. For example, Flight Centre surprised short-sellers with a record $246 million profit for the year to June.

Yes. The article says retail and media stocks remain big hedge fund favourites. Fairfax Media was the most shorted company on the S&P/ASX 200 with 14% held by hedge funds, and Myer was second with 13.4%.

The article presents mixed views: Platypus founder Donald Williams says much negative sentiment has already been priced in and shorting now may be 'late to the party,' while Bell Potter’s Peter Quinton notes that a UBS forecast of a 20% fall in global capex means share prices could still fall much further. The article does not give investment advice, but highlights both the potential rationale and the risks of short-selling these stocks.