Recession! Are you kidding?

After this week's stronger than expected GDP numbers it's a one-in-four chance.

Summary: The Australian economy expanded almost 1 per cent in the March quarter, beating expectations. As good as that number was, it’s probably still understating true growth momentum. The data is still far too inconsistent in many cases, especially with regard to household spending, public demand and the way in which it is adjusted. Correcting for inconsistencies yields an economy that is growing at trend or above.

Key take-out: Despite rampant concerns, a recession is highly unlikely after today’s GDP result and in the context of robust job growth, a construction boom and solid consumer spending.



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