Reality bites as the trade boom ends

A decline in Australia's terms of trade will see investment activity slump. Coupled with an ageing workforce, below-trend GDP growth may persist for longer than expected.

A once-in-a-lifetime terms of trade boom resulted in an unprecedented period of economic prosperity for Australians – 22 years and counting – but now we face the challenge of a terms of trade decline. The sheer size of the anticipated decline in mining investment, combined with an ageing population, suggests that the challenges of this terms of trade decline may prove more difficult than those in the past.

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