On the cusp of a China rebalancing

A reversal of Beijing's extraordinarily high investment levels is unavoidable, the only question is how this will affect GDP growth.

No matter how sincere its intentions, what Beijing says it will do over the next few years is meaningful only if its policies are both internally consistent and do not violate external constraints. In this article I will try to lay out as logically as possible the economic options available to Beijing, with some discussion of their limitations. Any decision made by Beijing that is not consistent with these options is not worth taking seriously as a prediction of the future.

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