Oil: Ready to recover?

Not only is Shell's proposed takeover of BG Group a vote of confidence for the oil price, but recent price signals have also been supportive.

Summary: Shell's £47 billion proposed takeover of BG Group has reignited debate about whether the oil price has bottomed. While we need to be careful as there isn't conclusive evidence for oil to have troughed, the price action offers some suggestion. Further, expectations are for US crude oil production to fall – meaning the supply ‘glut' may have reached its peak.

Key take-out: There is a good chance the oil price has troughed. Supply is only just keeping up with demand – even with the shale oil boom – and more experts in the sector are making huge plays on a recovery over the next few years.

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