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Often overlooked, micro caps are offering value

One of the weapons an individual has over institutions is time, and with real value emerging at the micro-cap end of the market, smaller stocks are an area worth holding on to.
By · 19 Jun 2013
By ·
19 Jun 2013
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One of the weapons an individual has over institutions is time, and with real value emerging at the micro-cap end of the market, smaller stocks are an area worth holding on to.

A fund manager needs to report that it’s beating its benchmark index each quarter, but a private investor has the luxury of hunting for value then waiting for that value to be released. It can take years, but it’s worth it.

My family bought Bolnisi Gold for about 8¢ a share, and we spent about $70,000. About five years later, when the shares went well north of $3, this investment returned in the region of $1.5 million. Sure, we had various duds, but you only need one winner to transform your return.

Back to the value at the little end. A proxy for the micro-cap index is often thought to be the S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index, the participants of which have an average market cap of about $100 million. This index is down about 25 per cent in the past 12 months, compared with the S&P/ASX 200, which, even after its correction of more than 9 per cent in the past month, is up almost 17 per cent.

Many small resource and industrial companies are trading at below their book value, which means that, in many cases, you could sell their assets, render the debt as worthless, and still make a profit on your shareholding.

In fiscal 2014 terms, the average price-to-earnings multiple for a small industrial company is 12.7 times, compared with about 14.6 times for a big-cap industrial.

But it’s not enough to be cheap. A key reason these companies are being sold down is liquidity. Investors have been pouring money into the big banks and Telstra, as well as companies that have demonstrated consistent double-digit growth, such as REA Group, which owns realestate.com.

The macro winds need to be blowing in the small and micro caps’ favour for this value to be released. But before this happens, it’s important to be positioned in the potential Bolnisi Golds of this world.

Andy Gracey runs Australian Ethical Investment’s small-cap portfolio. He says his portfolio has a defensive bias, with holdings including infrastructure companies and regional banks. But lately he’s been picking up micro caps, where he says value is emerging. He’s been buying hard-hit companies such as IT services provider ASG (ASX code ASZ) and some selected biotechnology companies.

‘‘People have definitely been focused on liquidity and safety in numbers lately. Small stocks are definitely unloved ... They get sold down to the point where there are genuine buying opportunities. Patience is the key, and knowing your stock.’’

Gracey names the health-related stocks of gene-therapy company Avita Medical (AVH), Alchemia (ACL), and Universal Biosensors (UBI) as some of his favourites being held by Australian Ethical.

Significantly, the majority of sales from these companies are off shore – in US dollars and euros – so they will be benefiting from a weaker Australian dollar.

Gracey knows that some of the smaller stocks can hurt his portfolio if things don’t go to plan, but he also knows that to produce outstanding returns in future, his fund can’t rely on stocks whose short-term returns are reliant on dividends. And nor can your super.

Richard Hemming edits the newsletter Under the Radar Report: Small Caps.
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

Micro-cap stocks are very small publicly listed companies (a proxy is the S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index, whose participants have an average market cap of about $100 million). The article explains micro caps can be undervalued relative to larger companies — many are trading below book value — and because individual investors can wait patiently for value to be released, a single winner can transform returns.

According to the article, the S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index (a proxy for micro caps) was down about 25% over the past 12 months, while the S&P/ASX 200 was up almost 17% over the same period (even after a correction of more than 9% in the past month).

The article notes many small resource and industrial companies are trading below book value. It also cites fiscal 2014 price-to-earnings multiples: about 12.7 times for a small industrial company versus about 14.6 times for a big‑cap industrial, indicating smaller stocks can appear cheaper on common valuation metrics.

The piece highlights liquidity as a key risk — small stocks can be sold down because investors favour safer, liquid names. Smaller companies can also deliver duds and can hurt a portfolio if plans don’t work out. Patience, knowing your stock, and accepting higher volatility and liquidity risk are important cautions for investors.

The article points out that unlike fund managers who must report short-term performance, private investors can hunt for value and wait years for it to be released. That patience can allow them to hold onto mispriced small stocks until macro conditions or company progress unlocks value.

The article names specific small or micro-cap companies and sectors mentioned by Australian Ethical’s small-cap manager Andy Gracey, including IT services provider ASG (ASZ) and selected biotechnology/health-related stocks such as Avita Medical (AVH), Alchemia (ACL) and Universal Biosensors (UBI). It also contrasts investor flows into large, liquid names like the big banks, Telstra and REA Group.

The article notes that for many of the health-related micro-caps mentioned, the majority of sales are offshore in US dollars and euros. That means these companies would likely benefit from a weaker Australian dollar, because offshore revenue converts into stronger AUD-reported sales.

The article suggests being positioned in potential winners early, doing your homework and exercising patience. It uses a personal example where a long-term holding in Bolnisi Gold (bought at about 8¢) eventually returned substantially. The takeaway: look for genuine value, accept some duds, focus on liquidity dynamics and be prepared to wait for macro winds to turn in micro caps’ favour.