Long wait for a new market dawn

How long before we can pronounce the effectiveness of US and European stimulus? Market calm indicates a begrudging acceptance policymakers are getting it right – but in the end, recovery will be up to the private sector.

Global financial markets have been remarkably calm in the last month. Daily share market moves are generally up and down not much more than a quarter or half a per cent. Bond yields in the G7 markets are little changed from levels a month or two ago. In currency markets, the US dollar is weaker as the market correctly judges that the Fed’s latest QE is a structural break for its currency, but in the event, the depreciation has been orderly.

Policy makers and investors should be delighting at this lack of volatility which reflects tentative news of an economic recovery and a growing acceptance that policy makers are finally on the right track.

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