Lightning risk to the Australian dollar

If terms of trade follow historic cycles, an enormous adjustment could see the dollar fall as low as 50 US cents in 2015. Meanwhile, mining investment looks increasingly shaky.

Fortunately I have never been struck by lightning. But last night at the CEDA dinner, when Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens put two graphs on the screen and later declared that our dollar was "a little on the high side” it felt like a lightning strike.

Suddenly I realised what could happen to Australia in 2015 given the ominous events taking place in 2012. The dollar would fall dramatically, perhaps to 50 US cents.

image


image

{{content.question}}

Mastercard

{{ twilioFailed ? 'SMS Code Failed to Send…' : 'An SMS verification code has been sent ...' }}

Hi {{ user.FirstName }}

Looks like you have already taken a free trial

Please enter your payment details

We have sent you a code via SMS to {{user.DayPhone}}

please enter this code below to complete your SMS verification

We cannot send you a code via SMS to {{user.DayPhone}}

If you didn't receive SMS code please

SMS code cannot be sent due to: {{ twilioStatus }}

Please select one of the options below:

Looks you are already a member. Please enter your password to proceed

Please untick this box when using a public or shared device


Verify your mobile number to proceed...

Please check your mobile number below and press the Send Verification Code button. This will be used to complete your verification in the next step.

Please sign up for full access

Mastercard

Updating information

Please wait ...

Trial

Mastercard
{{ productPrice }} / day
( GST included )
Price $0
GST $0
Discount -{{productDiscount}}
TOTAL {{productPrice}}
  • Mastercard
  • Visa

Please click on the ACTIVATE button to finalise your membership

Mastercard

The email address you entered is registered with InvestSMART.

Please login or select "Don't know password"

Please untick this box when using a public or shared device


Register as a new member

(using a different email)

Related Articles