Lending Banks wary over cheap credit
With debate raging over the resurgent housing market, minutes from this month's Reserve Bank board meeting show members discussed the risks posed by very cheap credit before leaving the cash rate unchanged at 2.5 per cent.
The Reserve also revealed it was closely monitoring the growing trend of borrowing to invest in real estate through do-it-yourself retirement funds.
"In the current environment of low interest rates and slow credit growth, members agreed that it was especially important that banks maintained prudent lending standards," said the minutes, published on Tuesday.
The central bank also saw the trend towards geared property investment in the $500 billion self-managed super sector as a potential problem as an area in which "households could be starting to take some risk with their finances; members noted that this development would be closely monitored by bank staff".
While the RBA said Australia's financial system was in good health, the comments are likely to fuel the debate over the housing market.
With Sydney auction clearance rates at their highest in a decade and some analysts predicting house price gains of 10 per cent or more this year, real estate is emerging as a key concern for regulators.
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said the booming housing market was likely to influence the central bank's decisions from now on. "It's going to be one of the possible constraints for the RBA to deliver further rate cuts," he said.
Mr Bloxham, a former RBA economist, predicted continuing house price growth in months ahead as the full effects of record low interest rates were felt.
"We are at the early stages of a housing boom," he said. "I would not be surprised if house prices pick up to double-digit rates into the early stages of next year."
Regulators around the world are debating how best to respond to the financial risks created by very cheap debt, and the RBA minutes showed members were also briefed on New Zealand's move to introduce tougher laws.
Some overseas commentators have also stepped up warnings over the property exposure of the nation's banks.
Macquarie banking analyst Mike Wiblin said it was "premature" to be talking about bubbles when housing credit was growing at just 4.7 per cent a year.
Bubble debates aside, house price concerns highlight the balancing act facing the Reserve.
Higher prices are probably needed to encourage more housing development, economists say. But too much price growth threatens to stretch household balance sheets and raise risks for banks.
ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said the shift in economic activity to non-mining areas had already begun, and the proof was in rising house prices.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
The RBA urged Australia’s banks to maintain prudent lending standards and not to lower credit quality while official interest rates sit at their lowest level in more than half a century. The board’s minutes noted members discussed the risks of very cheap credit before leaving the cash rate unchanged at 2.5%.
Cheap credit can fuel a resurgent housing market and encourage higher borrowing, which may stretch household balance sheets and increase risks for banks. The RBA minutes flagged the growing housing market — including high Sydney auction clearance rates — as a key concern for regulators and investors to watch.
The RBA noted a growing trend of people borrowing to invest in real estate through do-it-yourself retirement funds. It highlighted the $500 billion self-managed super sector and said geared property investment by SMSFs could be a potential problem, with bank staff to closely monitor this development.
Yes. HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham told the RBA minutes the booming housing market is likely to influence the central bank’s decisions and could act as a constraint on delivering further rate cuts as house price gains feed through the economy.
Some overseas commentators have warned about banks’ exposure to property, but the RBA said Australia’s financial system is in good health. Macquarie analyst Mike Wiblin cautioned it was ‘premature’ to call a bubble while housing credit was growing at about 4.7% a year, showing the debate is mixed.
The RBA minutes showed board members were briefed on New Zealand’s move to introduce tougher laws to tackle financial risks from cheap debt. The example was part of broader international discussion on how to respond to risks from very low interest rates.
Economists quoted in the article say higher prices may be needed to encourage more housing development, but they warn too much price growth risks stretching household balance sheets and raising problems for banks. ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan noted the shift in activity to non-mining areas is already evident in rising house prices.
Investors should watch RBA policy updates and the cash rate, trends in house prices and auction clearance rates (for example Sydney’s high clearances), growth in housing credit, any increases in leveraged investing via SMSFs, and commentary from major banks and economists. These indicators help signal changing risks from very cheap credit.