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Keen competition in doomsayer duel

The University of Western Sydney associate professor Steve Keen has come a long way in the two years since he was forced to stroll up Mount Kosciuszko after losing a bet with former Macquarie Group economist Rory Robertson over the direction of house prices.
By · 2 Apr 2012
By ·
2 Apr 2012
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The University of Western Sydney associate professor Steve Keen has come a long way in the two years since he was forced to stroll up Mount Kosciuszko after losing a bet with former Macquarie Group economist Rory Robertson over the direction of house prices.

Despite Keen's dire predictions on the Australian housing market so far failing to materialise, he has cemented his position in the A-Team of doomsday economists alongside Dr Doom himself, Nouriel Roubini.

Keen's rapid ascent up the Doomsday Economist Top 100 was given a major boost last week courtesy of a disagreement with the Nobel Prize-winning New York Times-writing economist Paul Krugman. Krugman in his widely read blog expressed scepticism over some of Keen's arguments, which are largely inspired by the US economist Hyman Minsky.

"My point is that there seems to be a lot of implicit theorising going on here - and, at least at first glance, the implicit theorising doesn't make a lot of sense," Krugman said.

The criticism does not appear to have dented Keen's popularity. A conversation between the Australian economist and the BBC Newsnight economics editor, Paul Mason, tomorrow at the London School of Economics has sold out. Later this month, Keen will be one of the key speakers at a conference in Berlin hosted by the Institute for New Economic Thinking.

He will deliver the paper at the conference that attracted the scrutiny of Krugman last week.

"I hope someone in Berlin presses Keen on all this," Krugman said in his blog.

TO THE LETTER

What do you do when you want to defend your company against an attempted board spill in the most ethical way? Hit back with a staff survey.

Countering a previous "staff" survey used by the former long-serving director and co-founder of the Australian Ethical Investment Limited Howard Pender in his attempt to replace the struggling company's board, a group of staff at the ethical fund manager have fought back.

"Many staff were upset and angry that you collectively decided to publicly misrepresent the opinion of AEI staff," said a letter from an "elected employee representative" of the company to Pender and two of his fellow coup plotters late last week.

The survey found that only 5 per cent of staff had lost faith in the AEI board and that 78 per cent felt the management team "can run the company", the survey said.

This counters the original letter that noted "staff morale is at an all time low" and that AEI's managing director, Phillip Vernon, had lost the confidence of staff.

The original letter, which was allegedly penned by the "staff of Australian Ethical", and which was promoted by Pender, claimed it was supported by 73 per cent of staff of the fund manager, which invests in companies based on their environmental, social and governance performance.

BIODEGRADABLE

It also remains unclear what class of ethical investment AEI would be categorised if Pender's attempted board spill succeeds.

Despite Pender's final list of board nominees and 30-odd general meeting resolutions yet to be released, it is not clear how some of the names already put forward will pass the ASX's corporate governance principles.

For starters, not all of the potential directors appear to fit the definition of "independent". One of the names put forward is Paul Ralph, who once sat with Pender on the board of a failed company called Advanced Energy Systems.

Ralph also was found by the Federal Court in 2009 (and again after an appeal in 2010) to have breached his duties as a director of a subsidiary of the listed company Medivac over the payment of $110,000 to a private company in which he had a 99 per cent share.

Another potential AEI director, like Pender, James Thier served on the company's board for about 20 years. And another budding candidate, Stephen Hyam, is a former marketing manager with the ethical fund manager.

But at least Pender's team of candidates are bustling with fresh ideas that could be injected in the ailing company. One of the candidates is the Greens member of the ACT legislative assembly Caroline Le Couteur, who on recent polling could struggle to keep her seat in this year's election. It just happens that Le Couteur is a former long-serving ex-executive director of AEI.

Among some of Le Couteur's ideas while in the ACT Parliament have been to curb greenhouse gases through promoting "natural burials" - with people buried vertically - over cremation and the use of bio-degradable coffins.

In keeping up the toughest of corporate governance principles regarding the independence of a board of directors, another name to have been put forward in Pender's attempted board coup at AEI is the Greens MLA's sister Penny Le Couteur.

No word if the Pender coup plot will use a biodegradable coffin if it fails.

UP AND AWAY

Oh, the rigours of travelling first class. Or, heaven forbid, business class. Rio Tinto seems to appreciate this, given the 30-odd per cent lift in allowances it pays its non-executive directors to jump on a medium or long-haul flight.

The miner's recently released annual report disclosed the "overseas meeting allowance" for flights between five to 10 hours had been increased from #3500 ($5404) to #5000 in 2011. For flights over 10 hours, the allowance was increased from #7500 to #10,000.

That means a return flight from Melbourne to London could see the Rio director and AFL commissioner Mike Fitzpatrick, for example, recoup around $31,000 in overseas travel allowances. It is probably a good thing the allowance is only for flights of more than five hours.

Could be a bit pricey compensating all of those fly-in fly-out workers who work on Rio's various excavation sites around the world.

The miner also saved its directors the hassle of having to chip in for a farewell present for its former board member and News Corp director Sir Rod Eddington, who stepped down in May last year. Rio disclosed it forked out $7000 for a retirement gift for Sir Rod.

BHP Billiton, for the record, also pays its directors a $US7000 allowance for jumping on flights between three to 10 hours. The allowance jumps up to $US15,000 for flights more than 10 hours.

Got a tip? srochfort@fairfax.com.au

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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

Steve Keen has made dire predictions about the Australian housing market that, according to the article, have so far failed to materialise. Despite that, he has risen in profile among so-called doomsday economists. His work—largely inspired by Hyman Minsky—drew scepticism from Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, but Keen's public talks (including a sold-out event at LSE and a speaking slot at an Institute for New Economic Thinking conference in Berlin) suggest strong public interest.

Paul Krugman wrote on his widely read blog that there appears to be 'a lot of implicit theorising' in Steve Keen's work and that, at first glance, the implicit theorising 'doesn't make a lot of sense.' Krugman also said he hoped someone in Berlin would press Keen on the issues raised in the paper Krugman scrutinised.

Former long‑serving director Howard Pender attempted to replace AEI's board. He circulated a letter reportedly claiming 73% staff support for his move and that 'staff morale is at an all time low.' In response, a group of AEI staff ran a counter survey and an elected employee representative wrote to Pender, saying many staff were upset by the earlier letter. The counter survey found only 5% of staff had lost faith in the AEI board and 78% felt the management team 'can run the company.'

Pender's final list of nominees included names such as Paul Ralph (who previously served with Pender on the board of Advanced Energy Systems and was found by the Federal Court in 2009—and again after an appeal in 2010—to have breached his duties related to a Medivac subsidiary over a $110,000 payment), James Thier (a director for about 20 years), Stephen Hyam (a former AEI marketing manager), and Greens MP Caroline Le Couteur (a former long‑serving AEI executive director). The article notes it is not clear how some nominees would meet ASX corporate governance definitions of 'independent.'

The contrasting staff surveys highlight dispute over internal support and morale at AEI: one letter promoted by Pender claimed widespread staff concern, while a staff‑run survey found only 5% had lost faith and 78% backed management's ability to run the company. For investors in ethical funds, such disagreements can signal governance tension and are matters investors commonly monitor when assessing fund stability and leadership.

Rio Tinto's annual report disclosed increases in its 'overseas meeting allowance' for non‑executive directors in 2011: for flights between five to 10 hours the allowance rose from £3,500 (about $5,404) to £5,000, and for flights over 10 hours it rose from £7,500 to £10,000. The article gives an example that a return flight from Melbourne to London could see a director recoup around $31,000 in overseas travel allowances.

According to the article, BHP Billiton pays its directors a US$7,000 allowance for flights between three to 10 hours, and the allowance increases to US$15,000 for flights of more than 10 hours—figures presented alongside Rio Tinto's increased allowances in the same report.

The article highlights several governance themes investors often track: board contests and potential board spills; the independence and track records of proposed directors; staff morale and internal surveys; and director remuneration or allowances (such as overseas travel perks). These factors can affect company stability, reputation and, ultimately, investor confidence.