Were you waiting patiently for a downturn, hoping to pick up high-quality businesses at attractive prices when the global financial crisis hit?
I was. But when it came, I was shocked at the severity and impact of the fall. I could see the opportunity but, looking back, I'm not sure I made the best of it.
It's not our investing skills that often fail us it's our investing psychology. A sense of fear prevents us from acting as we know we should.
Here is a dose of psychological fortitude to help you avoid mistakes and profit from the opportunities amid the latest turmoil.
Hold cash
While we've recommended our members increase cash holdings over the past 18 months in preparation for a time such as this, if you don't have spare cash you need to take tough decisions. Don't hold stocks just because you've had them for years when better opportunities exist. You need the ability to act quickly. Ensure your cash is available through your broking account at short notice.
Have a 'buy' list
This is a great technique to sideline emotions that can prevent you from acting. If you know what you want and at what price, when the time comes you'll be ready. As Intelligent Investor senior analyst James Greenhalgh says: "If you're fuzzy about what you want to buy, or what yield you're looking for, you're less likely to act. You need to train yourself to WANT price falls, which involves ... developing a watch list beforehand."
Plan, buy gradually
Again, this technique relies on committing to a course of action before emotion takes over. Do not pile in all at once. Another colleague, senior analyst Gareth Brown, says: "Buying gradually in fearful times and sticking to high-quality companies at prices cheap enough to offer a good margin of safety is a more realistic aim than trying to pick the bottom of a market fall."
Instead of the dollar-cost-averaging approach, US investing legend Jeremy Grantham recommends a few big bites: "A single, giant step at the low would be nice but without holding a signed contract from the devil, several big moves would be safer." Whatever your preferred approach, choose one and stick to it.
Stick to portfolio limits
There are 39 stocks on Intelligent Investor's buy list and there's every chance a few won't work out. That is the nature of investing. Portfolio limits ensure the damage these failures might do to a concentrated portfolio won't be fatal to a more diversified one. Concentrate on the many bargain blue-chip opportunities and diversify, paying attention to portfolio limits. You don't have to sacrifice quality for high potential returns.
Challenge your impulses
We're programmed to respond to fear because in the past it's been a successful way of not getting eaten. But in the share market, fear inhibits profitable, rational action. If we are to prevail, we should constantly reassert a few fundamental truths about investing that conflict with our typical reactions to uncertainty and rapid share price falls.
Firstly, if you want certainty, you'll have to pay for it. When everything's going well, you won't get anything cheap. Bargains are a product of a climate of fear.
If you want to buy cheap stocks, you have to feel the fear and buy anyway. Secondly, accept that prices may fall after you've bought in. You can't pick market bottoms or tops but if you're buying high-quality businesses cheaply, that shouldn't stop you buying more when prices fall further.
Finally, separate price falls from underlying business performance. The market can be irrational. To avoid getting caught by the herd, focus on business performance, not macro issues or media headlines. This is the major, long-term determinant of share price direction.
Nathan Bell is the research director at The Intelligent Investor, intelligentinvestor.com.au. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288).
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
What should everyday investors do with cash during a market downturn?
The article advises holding cash so you can act quickly when opportunities arise. It suggests increasing cash holdings in preparation for downturns and keeping that cash available in your broking account at short notice rather than holding stocks only because you owned them for years.
How can a stock 'buy list' or watchlist help me buy during market fear?
Creating a buy list sidelines emotion: know what you want and at what price ahead of time. As Intelligent Investor senior analyst James Greenhalgh says, a clear watchlist and target yields make you more likely to act when prices fall instead of freezing up.
Should I buy all at once or buy gradually when markets fall?
The article presents both approaches: buying gradually can reduce risk and help you stick to high-quality companies at prices that provide a margin of safety (Gareth Brown). Alternatively, investing several larger amounts at attractive lows can work too (Jeremy Grantham). The key is to choose a plan and stick to it.
What are portfolio limits and why are they important for everyday investors?
Portfolio limits control concentration risk. The Intelligent Investor notes its buy list includes 39 stocks and accepts some will fail; limits ensure a few poor outcomes won't fatally damage a diversified portfolio. Diversify while focusing on bargain blue-chip opportunities.
How do I challenge fear-driven impulses when investing in a market downturn?
The article recommends reasserting a few investing truths: certainty costs you, bargains come from a climate of fear, accept that prices can fall after you buy, and focus on business performance rather than headlines. Regularly reminding yourself of these points helps override instinctive fear.
How should I separate short-term price falls from a company's underlying performance?
Focus on the business fundamentals instead of macro issues or media noise. The market can be irrational; by assessing underlying business performance you avoid joining the herd and make longer-term, rational buy decisions.
Is buying 'cheap stocks' during fear a sound strategy for long-term investors?
According to the article, yes—if you buy high-quality businesses at prices that offer a margin of safety. You must accept that prices may fall further after you buy, but bargains are a product of fear, and buying quality cheaply can be rewarding over the long term.
Who wrote this investing guidance and what type of advice is it?
The piece is by Nathan Bell, research director at The Intelligent Investor. It is general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288) and focuses on investing psychology, cash management, buy lists, buying strategies, and portfolio limits during market turmoil.