Don’t expect the Aussie dollar to fall any further

A tsunami of currency depreciation is set to be unleashed across the region if Japanese policymakers respond to the recession by printing more money.

There’s been a lot of celebration about the weak Australian dollar recently -- especially from the tourism and education sectors. Unfortunately, much of it is extremely premature, because, just as these celebrations have ramped up, the local currency has pushed higher. Not on a USD basis perhaps, but certainly when measured against a basket of other currencies, on a trade weighted basis.

Key to that is the rapid appreciation of the Australian dollar against the yen and the euro, which together account for just under a quarter of the basket. The dollar is up over 9 per cent against the yen this year and 8 per cent against the euro. Otherwise, and against our other major trading partners, the Australian dollar has been steady.  


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