COPENHAGEN CALLING: Rudd's cool reception

Giles Parkinson is providing on-the-ground coverage of key developments in Copenhagen throughout the Climate Conference. To read all of Giles' news and commentary, go to our Copenhagen Climate Conference page. Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary of the UN Climate Change Conference, seems intent on trying to jaw-bone the 192 nations into a robust agreement at Copenhagen. But if the objective is a 25 to 40 per cent cut in emissions from developed countries from their 1990 levels by 2020, there is still some way to move. Only Norway has pledged 40 per cent, the rest of Europe sits between 20 per cent and 30 per cent, Japan is at 25 per cent, Australia is at 5 to 25 per cent, and the US is at just 4 per cent. (Its 17 per cent pledge is based on a reduction from 2005 levels, a considerable fudge). That leaves the developed world average at 14 to 16 per cent, which leaves the formula for the conference at a relatively simple “double or quits”. De Boer argues that failure to get there means either governments in reality do not accept the science, or simply don't believe it is important enough to commit to the required policies. It's unlikely there will be much movement before Wednesday, when the environment and/or climate change ministers arrive en masse. But they won't be able to take the glory away from their immediate bosses, so perhaps the stage will be set for a grand entrance for the presidents and PMs – now at 105 and growing – in the finals days of the conference. Experimental dollars Despite the general optimism in the lead-up to the conference, the chances of such deal still look to be at long odds. But if you want to play the climate change market, in the absence of our own ETS, there is a way. The UNSW Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets and legal firm Baker & McKenzie have set up a Copenhagen Predictions Market, in which participants using “experimental dollars” (E$s) can bet on a range of outcomes, such as deadlines for legally binding agreements, aggregate reduction targets, and the long term stabilisation target. You can bet on an outcome of less than 10 per cent, between 10 and 15 per cent, between 15 per cent and 20 per cent, and so on. UNSW expects the price of these shares to vary as new information about negotiating positions becomes available. You can even bet on individual country reduction targets, including for Australia, and the design of REDD mechanisms (reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation) and the future of the CDM (clean development mechanism) market. There are no fees, and no real money at stake, but the three winners in each category will each get a prize. Where's Rudd? Arriving at Copenhagen, the visitor is immediately assailed by posters adorning the airport arrivals lounge and corridors on the subject of climate change, and a particularly direct campaign by Greenpeace, known as the “tcktcktck” campaign. It pictures world leaders in 2020 along with the quote: “I'm sorry. We could have stopped catastrophic climate change … we didn't.” There's Barack Obama (he ages quite well), the UK's Gordon Brown (he doesn't), China's Hu Jintao, Germany's Angela Merkel, France's Nicolas Sarkozy, the UK's Gordon Brown, Russia's Dmitry Medvedev, Brazil's Lula da Silva, and two intransigents – Canada's Steve Harper and Poland's Donald Tusk (coal dependent Poland wants to be treated as a developing nation, and is threatening EU hegemony on the issue). But where's the Kevin Rudd poster? Was this some error of omission (or emission)? Local Greenpeace operatives were struggling to identify exactly why the leader of the world's most polluting nation on a per capita basis was left out, but perhaps some of the Greenpeace Australia people can whip up a poster of Kevin in time for his arrival next week. Sceptic poster-boys If Rudd struggles to make a mark on the international arena, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is being spoken of in all the right places, even earning a comparison with Vladimir Putin in the Financial Times, although only for his penchant for baring his torso. Abbott was one of two international politicians profiled in an FT special this weekend for being prominent political climate sceptics, and for being the first real life example of someone winning political power on that basis. The other politician profiled was the notorious Senator Jim Inhofe, the ranking Republican on the Senate's public works committee, who swears he is more likely to burn his cowboy boots than allow the US to ratify any climate change treaty. The treatment of the conference by the FT was interesting, as it gave much prominence to the rising influence of climate change scepticism, driven, of course, by the leaked emails from the University of East Anglia. Across the ditch, however, Le Monde devoted seven pages to its preview of Copenhagen, largely dismissing the sceptics and chastising them for grabbing at any piece of information they could find that could possibly support their arguments. One of its favourites was the constant citing of Greenland, as if the name itself was proof that it was, 1000 years ago, an agrarian paradise and that changing climate was the norm. Le Monde noted that Greenland was in fact a fanciful name made up by the first permanent resident Viking, Erik the Red. Erik had thought of the name Groen Land because it might convince others to follow him. And besides, the name Iceland was already taken. The first documented case of greenwash, perhaps? Chart chicanery Weather-wise, Copenhagen is not an accommodating place for a “warmist”, as climate sceptics like to call most of the delegates. For a start it's cold – it was a maximum of 6 degrees Celsius today and one wonders whether having a conference in a bleak, overheated, drought riven city – Adelaide, for instance – might have got the point across a little more clearly. And the statistics don't help. Since a late November peak of 12 degrees, Copenhagen's daily maximum's have obstinately fallen, despite the country emitting an extra 2 million tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere over that time. Proof, coolists could argue, that Copenhagen might be like one of those parties where the guest of honour – in this case global warming – failed to show. Or, maybe it's winter. But if you cut a graph short enough, it's possible to tell any story. Giles Parkinson can be contacted during the conference at: gpfreelance@optusnet.com.au 07 Dec 2009 6:56 AM