Bet the Lodge: Abbott's big serve

Bookies are framing the Coalition's odds against Labor like those of Rodger Federer in an opening round match against the world’s number 300 at Wimbledon.

Clive Palmer’s relaunch of the United Australia Party has had no impact on betting markets with the Coalition still at Black Caviar type odds to win the election.

Recent polls confirm the Coalition with a lead of around 10 percentage points over Labor – that is 55 per cent to 45 per cent and the bookies are framing the odds in much the same way as a Rodger Federer match in an opening round game against the world’s number 300 at Wimbledon.

While each betting agency is offering slightly different odds according to the flow of cash, the Coalition remains around $1.05 to $1.09 from most agencies although Luxbet is offering odds as long as $1.12.

If the election really is all over bar the shouting, a 12 per cent tax free return with Luxbet for a little over five months of ‘investing’ would be attractive.

Of course, there is risk. The Coalition may not win.

Labor are as wide as $8.25 with Centrebet but more generally is in the range of $7.00 to $8.00. This has been their odds for the past month or so and it seems that only a material change in the polls is needed to bring the betting odds somewhat closer.

The so-called exotic markets offer some interesting opportunities to make and lose money.

Sportsbet is offering odds on the informal vote in the House of Representatives. The two shortest prices are 4.01 to 5.00 per cent ($2.75) and 5.01 to 6.00 per cent (also $2.75). An informal vote of between 6.01 to 7.00 per cent is $9.00, while 3.01 to 4.00 per cent is $4.00.  The informal vote was 5.55 per cent at the 2010 election.

Centrebet is still offering odds on who will lead the Labor Party at the 14 September election. Julia Gillard appears good value at $1.35, while both Kevin Rudd and Simon Crean are $5.00 followed by Bill Shorten at $15.00.

Sportsbet is betting on the Coalition leader for election day and Tony Abbott is a prohibitive $1.01, with Malcolm Turnbull is being kept safe at $7.50 while Joe Hockey is almost right your own ticket at $26.00.

In terms of the number of seats the Greens will win in the House of Representatives, zero is the $1.75 favourite and reflects the strong likelihood that Adam Bandt will be beaten by Labor in Melbourne and there is unlikely to be any other Green win. To win more than five seats, the Greens are $51.00.

Such is the dominant position of the Coalition in the polls that they are odds on at $1.90 to win 101 or more seats in the 150 member House of Representatives. Such a result could signify the biggest landslide in electoral history.

All up, the Coalition are short odds to win the election. Nothing much has changed in recent weeks, even though there are more than four months until close to 15 million people cast their vote.

*  The odds are subject to change and the bookmakers reserve the right to refuse bets. Wager only what you can afford to lose.

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