Bet the Lodge: Abbott's advantage

Betting market odds are shortening on a Coalition win, with Tony Abbott now at $1.02 to be leader on election day.

Over the last few weeks, the odds of a Coalition victory at the September 14 federal election have shortened from what was already the status of hot favouritism. Punters are putting money on the Coalition to win even though they are already at very short odds. The Labor Party are rank outsiders.

There are at least seven betting agencies offering odds for the federal election, with the best odds available for a Coalition win being $1.16 with Luxbet. Around a month ago, the Coalition was $1.25. The $1.16 currently on offer means that for each dollar outlaid, there is a return of just 16 cents if the Coalition happens to win the election. Of course, you lose the lot in the event they do not win.

Allowing a little for the bookmakers margin, these odds suggest the probability of a Coalition victory is around 82 per cent.  

The flood of money on the Coalition means that the Labor Party has blown out to the point where $6.50 is available at tab.com.au. In a two horse race, these are very long odds and at face value, suggest the chances of a Labor win are around 15 per cent. (Note the totals do not add to 100 per cent, partly because the odds are taken from different agencies.)

For those looking to spice up the odds, Centrebet is offering odds of $3.10 that the Coalition win 101 or more seats in the 150 member House of Representatives. The Coalition currently has 72 seats. For the truest of true believers who think that Labor can win 101 or more seats, the odds are $141.00.

Sportsbet has a slightly different market framed on the number of seats that each party will win. According to Sportsbet, the Coalition is odds on at $1.60 to win 91 or more seats which, if achieved, would give it one of the biggest majorities recorded. For Labor, you can get $101.00 on it winning 91 or more seats. 

A hung parliament is $26.00.

Tony Abbott is $1.02 to still be leader of the Liberal Party on election day, while Malcolm Turnbull is reasonably tight at $6.00 if Abbott gets hit by the proverbial bus. Wyatt Roy is $5,001.00 to lead the Liberal Party on election day.

The betting on Labor Party leader is a little more competitive, with Julia Gillard a firm $1.60 favourite to hold on and face the voters, while Kevin Rudd is well in commission at $2.40. Out at $7.50 is Bill Shorten while Kate Ellis and Peter Garrett are each at $251.00.

All of which suggests the betting markets are seeing the Coalition almost home and hosed, even though polling day is more than six months away. Indeed, the betting on the number of seats suggests it will be a landslide and that Tony Abbott will be prime minister on September 15.

Remember, bet only what you can afford to lose.

For those with a gambling problem, please see www.problemgambling.gov.au