Battling the dark art of economic forecasting

There's a murky area between predicting downside risks and talking an economy down. And the effects are felt everywhere from recent Chinese liquidity panic to the local political news cycle.

Lowy Interpreter

Since so much international economic discussion revolves around GDP forecasting, it's worth looking at the quirks and pitfalls of this black art. Yogi Berra famously said 'It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future'. This view has been confirmed by more rigorous analysis, both at the Australian Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia. How should forecasters respond to the difficulties?

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Stephen Grenville

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