A potential sticking point for the UK recovery

The BoE may have upgraded its UK economic outlook but with households a key driver of recovery it’s unlikely to touch rates until slow wage growth and lagging productivity improve.

The outlook for the UK has picked up over the past three months but stronger productivity and wage growth will largely determine how durable its economy is over the next couple of years. Inflation should remain fairly benign -- consistent with moderate levels of spare capacity and a higher British pound -- which suggests that the Bank of England (BoE) won’t be in a great hurry to raise rates.

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