A history lesson for the Aussie dollar

In the absence of a crisis, it’s not likely the local currency will trade at US60c or below for any length of time.

Summary: The call for the Australian dollar to head toward US 60 cents is a very big call. If history is any guide, we need to see a crisis for the Aussie dollar to hit US60 cents or below for any length of time. In the absence of that it’s not likely we’ll get there, I would suggest.

Key take-out: It is looking like the dollar will be weaker for longer. Nonetheless I maintain my view that as it becomes clearer the Australian economy isn’t falling into a heap, the currency will appreciate.

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