The triumph of Ted Baillieu

Victorians have proven – yet again – how voters instinctively know what they are doing in a ballot booth. They know when to change, and when not.

The very same people who calmly gave Julia Gillard a pronounced swing to her in eastern Melbourne Federal seats (which helped deliver government) also gave John Brumby a pointed and brutal towelling.

They were each convinced that Gillard should be given a chance – and, equally, that Brumby had run out of time and could no longer be trusted. These voters cost him the Premiership.

Victorians also ignored the editorial urgings of the Herald Sun, The Age and the Financial Review, who all called for the re-election of the Brumby government.

The election result is not formally declared with pre-poll votes yet to be sorted, but as of last night (based on the pre-poll count trends in Bentleigh) they will have a minimum 45 seats out of 88.

Baillieu has proven the naysayers and internal critics wrong. He ran the campaign on his terms, his timetable and his convictions.

The Liberal Party's decision to preference the ALP ahead of the resurgent Greens turned out to be a masterstroke. It was Baillieu's decision.

He wanted voters to have a choice between a stable coalition and what he termed an "unstable ALP/Green alliance”.

Above all, it showed voters a hitherto unseen side of Baillieu – his quiet and steely determination.

For four-and-a-half years Baillieu has gone about his business rebuilding the shattered state Liberals, forging a close personal and political alliance with the impressive Nationals leader, Peter Ryan, crafting half decent policy options (especially in public infrastructure) and staring down the so-called Costello/Kroger forces inside the Victorian Division.

He did this also without support from the entrenched Victorian business elite, who were all locked into the continuation of the Brumby government.

He ignored strident and constant media demands that he become more aggressive. He avoided charging around the place seeking the daily headline.

In this campaign, Baillieu stuck to a disciplined strategy to keep the focus on government mismanagement, waste and secrecy.

He was determined that voters should be reminded that the election of the Brumby government would mean "more of the same” for 15 years.

He knew that voters don't often give governments that much respect and joy. There are always greener pastures.

Brumby – a talented and committed political leader – also made the critical last minute mistake of a desperado.

He thought that a personal attack on Baillieu's old business was good politics. The scribes loved it, and scored it as an own goal against Baillieu when he took out an injunction.

There was only one problem – voters hated it. They had seen it in the previous election, and accepted it. Not this time. It was not relevant to the management of the state. And they knew Baillieu better. On such matters can rest the fate of governments.

Two weeks ago on this site – long before the last minute opinion poll surge – I suggested that John Brumby faced an almost certain "it's time” defeat. (See Why voters are bucking Brumby, November 15.)

In response, former Gareth Evans and Steve Bracks advisor Phil Quin ran a sturdy and hard-hitting critique on this site and declared "Come Monday it will be no surprise and no small relief to his beleaguered troops if Ted Baillieu is first out the door”.

Well, the troops out the door were John Brumby's - including two Cabinet Ministers - and Baillieu is about to walk through the Premiers door.

As a sideline note, he will now be the leading genuine 'liberal' in the Australian political landscape.

His clear priorities will be to run the state intelligently and openly. But he will have an influence in the larger and important debate about the direction and values of his party.

Malcolm Fraser will be chuffed.

Alister Drysdale is a Business Spectator political commentator and a former senior advisor to Malcolm Fraser and Jeff Kennett.