IMF report won't stop market rally

The IMF last night lowered their global growth forecasts. But they are still probably too optimistic.

As is the case these days, the International Monetary Fund has told us pretty much what we already knew.

According to the agency, China’s growth is expected to slow to 7.8% this year. If it did, that would be cause for celebration. For most analysts are tipping China’s growth to come in at 7.5% or lower.

Wall Street shrugged off the figures, pushing higher as the earnings season gets underway and the Australian market today is expected to challenge the 4,900 barrier as it recovers from the global shocks in May and June (see Adam Carr's Can Australia avoid a confidence death spiral?).

Metal prices were higher overnight, particularly iron ore which advanced 1.2%, giving some impetus to heavyweight miners to back the advances in yield plays such as the banks that really have led the charge on the Australian market in the past few days.

The more important China read will lob at midday when it releases its trade figures and analysts will be looking for trend growth in raw materials imports.

The other major regional factor today will come from Japan where the Bank of Japan is scheduled to provide more information on its stimulatory program.

The Australian dollar showed resilience overnight in the face of the IMF report, indicating just how much importance traders attached to the new global growth estimates.  At one stage it was above US92c but has trended lower this morning, although still well up on its levels earlier this week.

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