Why Shorten should fear a WA Senate re-run

By the end of today, Western Australians should know whether or not they’ll be headed to the polls to vote again to send six new senators to Canberra. The safest bet, at the time of writing, is that they will. 

Five months on from the federal election, it must be said that what should have been an opportunity for the Labor Party to gain ground looks to have become more of a hiding to nothing. 

Labor has opposed the idea of a Senate re-run in WA since the Greens-requested recount in which 1370 ballot papers went missing. Its reasons were obvious – in the recount, Labor went from two WA senators-elect, to one. So by backing the first count, it would get senator-elect Louise Pratt her seat back. 

And although I argued at the time that in an election re-run Labor could edge closer to having the numbers to frustrate the Coalition’s carbon tax repeal legislation in Canberra, Labor was obviously nervous that things could go the other way (Abbott’s nightmare is unfolding in WA, December 10 2013). And they have.                                                                              

Opinion polls should, in all likelihood, have shown a continuing ebb of support away from the Abbott government on economic grounds. That’s because to the punter in the street (rather than the wonks in the office) the news has been about job losses, particularly the loss of auto manufacturing and Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s hard line on assistance to SPC Ardmona. 

Western Australians are getting very nervous about jobs, and rightly so. West Perth, home to the head offices of many small-cap mining firms, is starting to resemble a ghost town. During a recent trip to WA, a barber cutting this columnist’s hair said footfalls past his West Perth shop had tailed off dramatically. Either miners have a new penchant for long hair, or they’re shutting up shop. Office vacancy rates in the area have nearly doubled.

But there is now a big question mark over whether job anxiety will turn sandgropers away from, or towards, the Coalition. Abbott says he wants to be remembered as 'the infrastructure prime minister', so expect some lavish project announcements in WA to help soak up displaced mining workers. Such moves could add momentum to the Coalition's primary vote.

The early signs for the Abbott government’s popularity were grim – the last Newspoll of 2013 showed primary-vote support for the Coalition drop from 51 per cent at the election to just 41 per cent. If that trend continued, a WA senate re-run would be a wash-out. 

How different this week’s Nielsen poll was – the national primary vote for Labor fell three points, and opposition leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating dropped like a stone from 51 per cent to 40 per cent. Many are linking that fall to Shorten’s defence of unions in the face of the Abbott government’s looming royal commission into union corruption. 

As pointed out previously, Labor needs strong leadership at this time, to shift the national debate away from workers’ rights and more into a middle-ground position focused on preserving workers’ jobs (Slamming Abbott on SPCA isn’t enough, February 5). 

Shorten has failed to make that mental leap, and was shown up by Australian Workers Union boss Paul Howes in a recent press club speech in which the union leader called for wage restraint and a new “grand compact” between employers and unions to save jobs (Howes’ grand compact is urgently needed, February 6). That’s what Shorten should have said himself. 

So if today’s High Court decision is to send Western Australians back to the polls, Labor – given its current poll slump – could come out with just one senator-elect, and more support going to right-leaning parties. The Palmer United Party, in particular, could be the winner. 

A week may be a long time in politics, but for the Shorten opposition, a couple of months waiting for the High Court to rule on the WA result looks like a very long time indeed.