When it comes to life and death, men are the eternal optimists

ON THE big question of life, men overshoot, and women shoot short.

By InvestSMART · 1 Dec 2012

By InvestSMART ·
1 Dec 2012

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ON THE big question of life, men overshoot, and women shoot short.

A survey of older workers by Macquarie University shows most men think they're going to live longer than is likely, women usually have more life left than they think, and men and women alike expect to die before their partner.

Just over 1900 participants were questioned twice, with a year in between. People who remained working throughout the survey period expected to live longer than those who remained retired, the study published in the Journal of Vocational Behavior found. The ones who expected to live longest of all were those who had earlier retired, then returned to work during the survey year.

Barbara Griffin, one of the researchers and a senior lecturer in organisational psychology at Macquarie, said: "The longer your self-estimated life expectancy, the more likely you are to keep working or return to work."

Men in the study estimated their life would be 1.19 years longer than the Bureau of Statistics actuarial estimates for their age based on death rates. Women underestimated their likely life span by nearly a year.

In estimating their own longevity, people take account of their parent's ages of death and their own health and lifestyles as well as the published actuarial probabilities of life expectancy for their age. The researchers said an older workers' mental model of when he will die "may actually become as important as chronological age" in affecting behaviour.

About half those surveyed gave "reasonably accurate" estimates of their life expectancy, Dr Griffin said. But 23 per cent overestimated by five years or more, and about the same proportion underestimated.

Nearly everyone thought they would die before their partner. "That is wishful thinking," Dr Griffin said. "They don't want to be alone."

The average retirement age for Australians who retired in the five years up to 2009 was 60.2 years.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

What did the Macquarie University survey reveal about older workers' life expectancy estimates?

A Macquarie University survey of just over 1,900 older workers, reported in the Journal of Vocational Behavior, found men tend to overestimate how long they'll live while women usually underestimate. About half gave reasonably accurate estimates, but 23% overestimated by five years or more and a similar share underestimated.

How do men and women differ in estimating their longevity?

In the study men estimated their lives would be about 1.19 years longer than Australian Bureau of Statistics actuarial estimates for their age, whereas women underestimated their likely lifespan by nearly one year.

Does expecting to live longer affect retirement and work decisions?

Yes. The researchers, including Barbara Griffin, found that the longer a person’s self-estimated life expectancy, the more likely they were to keep working or to return to work after retiring, indicating longevity expectations can influence retirement behaviour.

Which group expected to live the longest in the survey?

Those who had retired earlier and then returned to work during the survey year expected to live the longest, while people who remained working throughout expected longer lives than those who stayed retired.

What factors do people use when estimating their own life expectancy?

Participants said they take into account their parents’ ages at death, their own health and lifestyle, and published actuarial probabilities for their age when forming self-estimated life expectancy.

What surprising belief did most people have about dying before their partner?

Nearly everyone in the survey thought they would die before their partner — a belief the researchers called wishful thinking, noting many don’t want to be left alone.

How accurate are self-estimated life expectancies overall?

About half of respondents gave reasonably accurate life-expectancy estimates. However, roughly 23% overestimated by five years or more, and about the same proportion underestimated, showing sizable variation in personal longevity estimates.

What is the average retirement age cited in the article and how is that relevant for investors planning retirement?

The article cites an average retirement age of 60.2 years for Australians who retired in the five years up to 2009. For everyday investors, knowing typical retirement ages and how personal longevity expectations can influence work decisions may be useful when thinking about retirement timing and planning.