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Way clear for surge in wind power

THE battle over large-scale wind farms might switch from the national level to the states, particularly NSW, after a federal authority recommended leaving the overall industry target unchanged.
By · 20 Dec 2012
By ·
20 Dec 2012
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THE battle over large-scale wind farms might switch from the national level to the states, particularly NSW, after a federal authority recommended leaving the overall industry target unchanged.

The Climate Change Authority on Wednesday called for the mandatory renewable energy target to be left at 41,000 gigawatt-hours a year by 2020, prompting advocates to predict a surge in clean energy investments.

Victoria earlier this year prompted the wind industry to all but stall in that state after it barred wind turbines from being built within two kilometres of a house without written consent.

Now that the authority had given approval for these settings, as much as $18 billion of investment in the industry was up for grabs between now and the end of the decade, the Clean Energy Council predicted.

"Victoria has tightened up very greatly the opportunities for wind farm development," the Infigen Energy managing director, Miles George, said.

To meet the renewable energy target, the industry would need to build 1000 megawatts of wind capacity each year until 2020, or about half of the present installed capacity.

Data from energy services provider ROAM Consulting suggested the combination of proximity to markets and promising wind resources could see NSW's wind generating capacity soar 15-fold by 2020, leap-frogging South Australia and Victoria to be easily the biggest supplier.

The O'Farrell government was due to finalise guidelines on wind farms early next year, which might determine how much of the investment headed to NSW.

It was understood the government had been considering rule changes with the results of independent noise audits on two Infigen wind farms - Woodlawn and Capital - and one owned by Origin Energy that gave the suppliers a tick of approval.

"To have the audits done and have them confirm that we comply was obviously pleasing ... and completely as expected," Mr George said.

While the wind energy industry celebrated the authority's recommendations, the solar sector was disappointed.

The authority called for the size of solar photovoltaic panels deemed to be "small-scale" cut from 100 kilowatt capacity to as low as 10 kilowatts to prevent a blowout in costs for the scheme.

Small-scale generators were paid their renewable certificates up-front while large-scale generators were paid over five years.

Solar panel installer Mark Group chief executive, Rob Grant, said the industry would lobby to have the government reject the change, which hammered the cash-flow benefit for the owners of small buildings and other potential installers.

"This effectively strikes out more than 90 per cent of the available commercial market," Mr Grant said. "The sweet spot for commercial installations is 50-70 kilowatts."

Mark Group had planned to triple its staff of 150 in 2013, based on the potential demand spurt from commercial users. "If this [revision] happens, there's very little chance we'll expand."

The shift was the result of fierce lobbying by fossil-fuel generators and the coal industry, he said.

"They know [the commercial sector] is the next significant growth area for solar," he said. "It's also some of their most prized customers because they use large amounts of power."
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

The Climate Change Authority recommended leaving the mandatory Renewable Energy Target at 41,000 gigawatt‑hours a year by 2020. For everyday investors, that steady target signals continued demand for renewables projects (especially wind), which can translate into investment opportunities in developers, turbines, construction and related services.

The Clean Energy Council predicted as much as $18 billion of investment in the wind industry could be up for grabs between now and the end of the decade if the RET settings are maintained — a potential boost for companies involved in project development, equipment and construction.

To meet the RET, the industry would need to build about 1,000 megawatts of wind capacity each year until 2020 — roughly half of present installed capacity. For investors, that pace implies ongoing demand for project pipelines, turbine suppliers, grid connection services and finance for multi‑year build programs.

Data from ROAM Consulting suggested NSW could see wind generating capacity rise about 15‑fold by 2020 because of good wind resources and proximity to markets, potentially leap‑frogging South Australia and Victoria. Final NSW government guidelines (being developed by the O'Farrell government) will be important in determining how much investment actually flows there.

Victoria tightened rules by banning wind turbines within two kilometres of a house without written consent, which nearly stalled the wind industry in that state. The article also notes state‑level guidelines in NSW could shape how much investment arrives there, illustrating that state planning rules can significantly affect project pipelines and investor returns.

Independent noise audits on two Infigen Energy wind farms (Woodlawn and Capital) and one owned by Origin Energy reportedly gave the suppliers a tick of approval. Infigen’s managing director Miles George said the audits confirmed compliance, which is relevant for investor confidence in project approvals and operating risk.

The Climate Change Authority called for the small‑scale solar threshold to be cut from 100 kilowatts to as low as 10 kilowatts. Because small‑scale generators receive renewable certificates up‑front while large‑scale generators are paid over five years, the change would reduce the cash‑flow benefits for commercial installations and — according to Mark Group’s CEO Rob Grant — could knock out more than 90% of the available commercial market.

The article says the proposed shift on solar thresholds was the result of fierce lobbying by fossil‑fuel generators and the coal industry, per Mark Group’s CEO. Investors should watch for government decisions on these RET and small‑scale definitions, plus state planning rules, because lobbying and policy outcomes can materially affect the economics of renewable projects and company growth plans.