TWEET TALK: Rate cut rears?

A majority of economists are expecting the RBA to cut rates today, but in the spirit of Cup day some are still sitting on the fence.

Tweet Talk takes the best of Twitter and brings it to you. Today, economists weigh in on what move they think the RBA will make on interest rates for November.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets today to discuss the future of the official cash rate. Last month, the central bank cut rates from 3.5 to 3.25 per cent, the lowest they have been since October 2009. Should the RBA decide to drop the cash rate by its usual 25 basis-points, it will be the equal lowest Australia's cash rate has ever been. A majority of economists are tipping a cut to the cash rate, but like many punters today, most aren't feeling entirely certain.

Head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) tweeted that while a rate cut is needed, predicting the RBA's decision is a gamble.

"RBA at 2.30. Rates need to go down, and I think they will, but today is a close call. Might be better off taking a punt of horses!"

Commsec chief economist Craig James (@craigjamesOZ) looked to investors, tweeting that the market's slight lean towards a snip was on the mark.

"CommSec is tipping a rate cut on Melbourne Cup day but with no certainty. Financial markets have it as a 56 per cent chance, and that sounds right."

But Market Economics managing director and Business Spectator contributor Stephen Koukoulas (@TheKouk) tweeted that a move by the central bank is a near certainty.

"@BusinessSpec @AdamCarrEcon @benlebrun @craigjamesOZ Dismal retail sales in Q3; ANZ job ads in free fall; inflation low. Cut is near certain."

Meanwhile, Eureka Report investment strategist Adam Carr (@AdamCarrEcon) pointed to some strong economic data and inflation as reasons the central bank should hold fire.

"@BusinessSpec @benlebrun @TheKouk @craigjamesOZ Strong consumer spending and inflation at mid point of band would argue against any cuts."

Market analyst with optionsXpress Ben Le Brun (@benlebrun) tweeted that he expected an uptick in the local currency and the RBA to lower the cash rate.

"@BusinessSpec @AdamCarrEcon @TheKouk @AlanKohler @craigjamesOZ – Not too much I think AUD rallies slightly but rate cut still set 4 Cup Day."

And finally, Treasury dealer at the Arab Bank of Australia David Scutt (@David_Scutt) sat on the fence, saying we might as well flip a coin.

"'Coin toss'. For the first time in the lead up to the November #RBA meeting the odds are now exactly 50/50 for a rate cut #ausbiz."

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