TWEET TALK: Doves will cry

Relatively stable local data, coupled with a lower dollar, are why there's near consensus in the Twittersphere the Reserve Bank will hold fire until later this year.

Tweet Talk takes the best of Twitter and brings it to you. Today, economists weigh in on the move they think the RBA will make on interest rates for June.

Experts in the Twittersphere are largely tipping the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the official cash rate on hold when it meets today at 1430 AEST.

The views are consistent with an AAP survey of 13 economists, all but one of whom predicted a hold.

A falling Australian dollar and signs of relatively stable local and global economic growth were among the reasons cited for the hold, though some predicted another cut was likely later in the year.

Last month the Reserve Bank cut the cash rate to a record low of 2.75 per cent “to encourage sustainable growth in the economy, consistent with achieving the inflation target".

Eureka Report investment strategist Adam Carr (@AdamCarrEcon) said economic data was looking good and that another cut was unlikely.

“Oz econ around trend, unemployment rate low, CPI at mid point. Global recovery looks solid. No reason to cut then.”

OptionsXpress market analyst Ben Le Brun (@benlebrun) also agreed that stable economic signals and a lower dollar meant the board was likely to hold, but flagged another cut later in the year.

“Capex data was not as dire as some suggested. AUD now below parity is good. Sept looking like next cut,” he tweeted.

“The global economy is also holding up ok. Nothing has sailed over a cliff... Yet.”

Business Spectator columnist and Market Economics managing director Stephen Koukoulas (‏@TheKouk) agreed a later cut was likely but said inflation would affect the tone of the board’s forthcoming statement.

“No change but the statement will be riddled with dovish overtones,” he tweeted.

“Inflation so low at the moment a cut needed but not today.”

Meanwhile AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) was in a league of his own predicting another cut at today's meeting, which would bring the official cash rate to a record low.

Mr Oliver was pessimistic about the state of Australia’s economy, particularly a peak in mining investment, while a “still very high” dollar might need to be reined in further.

“I expect a cut, although timing is always a lottery! Economy is at crunch time with mining slowing, rest soft," he tweeted.

"$A is at $US0.9758. Still very high and in the same range it’s been in for almost 3 years. Not cutting could see it rebound."

But Adam Carr said the Reserve Bank had been "too pessimistic" and "overshot" with policy in the past.

“I think they'll hold this month, because it looks like they've called the end of the mining boom a few years too early," he tweeted.

“The Aussie dollar is the target here, but we don't know what level policy makers want."

Hannah Francis is Business Spectator's social media editor.

Follow @HL_Francis on Twitter.

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