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Turkish top brass beats early retreat

TURKEY awoke to a new era yesterday, one in which military generals irked by their government's behaviour don't stage a coup or throw a tantrum - they seek early retirement.
By · 1 Aug 2011
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1 Aug 2011
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TURKEY awoke to a new era yesterday, one in which military generals irked by their government's behaviour don't stage a coup or throw a tantrum they seek early retirement.

The decision by the top four figures in the military establishment to step down at the weekend stunned many in a country long accustomed to its military calling the shots. But as the dust settled, the realisation dawned that the dramatic move was just one more step in the erosion of the military's power in favour of civilian government that has taken place under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"Yesterday was a new phase, a sharp curve towards pushing the military to adapt to the current changes in Turkey," said newspaper columnist Yavuz Baydar. "It shows how toothless the military has become compared to the civilian authority."

Turkish President Abdullah Gul sought to play down any sense of crisis in comments.

"Nobody should see this as a continuing crisis or problem in Turkey," he said, according to the semi-official Anatolian news agency. "Without a doubt, the events of yesterday were extraordinary in their own right, but it is all back on track. It is not right to speak of a vacuum."

Nevertheless, "it was a watershed", said Henri Barkey, a Turkey expert at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania. "This was the day the military threw in the towel."

The resignations were prompted by disagreements between the military and the government over who would be eligible for promotion at Monday's annual meeting of the High Military Council, at which military officials meet government representatives to review appointments in the armed forces. Mr Erdogan had made it clear he was not prepared to consider candidates implicated in ongoing investigations in which about 250 soldiers and officers are awaiting trial for allegedly plotting coups.

Three of the men who resigned the commanders of the air force, army and navy had been due to retire in a month in any case. Mr Erdogan swiftly named General Necdet Ozel to replace the most senior of the four, General Chief of Staff Isik Kosaner, in an acting capacity and as commander of ground forces.

Professor Barkey said the fact that the generals chose to bow out rather than dig in signalled the scale of the shift away from military dominance over the past decade.

"In the old days, the military would warn and threaten and wave a big stick. They can't do it any more," he said. "In America and most European societies, the whole promotion process is supervised by civilians. Turkey is now like any other country where if you disagree with your bosses, you resign."

Mr Erdogan, 57, has reduced the armed forces' power over Turkish politics since he first won office in 2002. His party was formed a year earlier, after the closure of an Islamist movement to which he belonged. More than 40 serving generals, or about 10 per cent of the army's senior ranks, are under arrest after prosecutors alleged they planned bombings to attack Erdogan's administration.

Some observers expressed concern that the military's stature was being eroded too far, too fast, by the judicial pursuit of those implicated in the coup plot. Secularists fear that Mr Erdogan's efforts to defang the military presage a creeping Islamisation of society under his moderately Islamist Justice and Development Party.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

Turkey's top four military figures chose early retirement over confrontation, with the commanders of the air force, army and navy among those stepping down. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan quickly named General Necdet Ozel to replace General Chief of Staff Isik Kosaner in an acting capacity and as commander of ground forces.

The resignations were prompted by disagreements between the military and the government over who would be eligible for promotion at the High Military Council. Mr Erdogan had refused to consider candidates implicated in ongoing investigations into alleged coup plotting, which influenced the dispute.

The move is seen in the article as another step in the erosion of the military’s traditional power in favour of civilian government under Mr Erdogan. Commentators called it a watershed moment that shows the military has become less able to dominate Turkish politics.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul downplayed any sense of crisis, saying the situation was extraordinary but 'back on track.' Experts quoted in the article described it as a watershed moment: some said the military had 'thrown in the towel,' while others warned about the speed of the erosion of the military’s stature.

Judicial investigations played a central role: about 250 soldiers and officers are awaiting trial over alleged plots to stage coups, and more than 40 serving generals are under arrest in related proceedings. Mr Erdogan’s refusal to promote candidates implicated in these investigations helped trigger the resignations.

Observers expressed concern that the military’s stature may be eroded 'too far, too fast' and noted fears among secularists that reducing military power could presage social change under Mr Erdogan’s moderately Islamist party. For investors, the article suggests keeping an eye on political and social stability as part of assessing country risk.

The article notes Mr Erdogan has reduced the armed forces’ power since he first won office in 2002. His party was formed in 2001 after the closure of an Islamist movement to which he belonged, and his administrations have gradually shifted supervision of military promotions toward civilian authorities.

According to the article, investors should watch the High Military Council's promotion decisions, ongoing trials of alleged coup plotters, and any further government appointments or resignations. These developments will indicate how firmly civilian authorities are consolidating control and how quickly Turkey’s political landscape is changing.